Yari Shteyn
Showing 1–2 of 2 transcripts.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Why the U.K.’s high inflation has global implications
Jari Stehn, George Cole, Alison Nathan, Yari Shteyn
Amidst a unique confluence of labor shortages and energy shocks, UK headline inflation remains at 8% as the Bank of England prepares for a series of rate hikes to a terminal level of 5.75%. Goldman Sachs forecasts a slower disinflation path that will likely trigger a fiscal drag on GDP and heighten the risk of recession to 40%, while mortgage costs surge and household consumption stagnates. Despite these headwinds, improving terms of trade and a more aggressive monetary stance relative to global peers are projected to drive the pound higher against the dollar and euro over the coming year.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
The European Recovery: Here to Stay?
Allison Nathan, Jari Stehn, Richard Privorotsky, Yari Shteyn, Rich Pivorotsky
Driven by rapid vaccination rates and a significant fiscal stimulus package, the Euro Area and UK are projected to see GDP growth rates of 5.4% and 8.1% respectively in 2021, outpacing global consensus. While the ECB maintains an accommodative monetary stance with no rate hikes anticipated until 2025, European equity markets have rallied with cyclical sectors leading a shift in investor flows away from defensive positions. Despite persistent political risks in Italy, France, and Germany, the outlook remains positive as temporary inflationary pressures are expected to subside by late 2021, allowing structural reforms to drive medium-term expansion.