Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 39 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Bank of America21 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Central banks – the aftermath
Sphia Salim, Zviya Salim, Izumi Devalier, Agnieszka Ngerite, Bruno Brzezina
The Bank of Japan maintained a hawkish tone regarding inflation proximity while keeping the September rate hike on contingency, with strategists projecting a terminal rate of 1.75% by 2027 despite political headwinds. Meanwhile, the Bank of England split 6-3 to hold rates amidst balanced forward guidance, while the US Federal Reserve's lack of immediate action triggered a market reassessment that halved the probability of December hikes in favor of a potential September move. Across these major central banks, analysts note diverging paths where exchange rate sensitivity and QT impacts now play critical roles, all set against a backdrop of a potentially overvalued US 10-year yield and a US economy peaking in its reflationary phase.
- Y Combinator38 min
Recursion Is The Next Scaling Law In AI
Ankit Gupta, Francois Chaubard
Two 2025 research initiatives, Hierarchical Reasoning Models (HRM) and Tiny Recursive Models (TRM), challenge standard scaling laws by utilizing inference-time recursion to achieve state-of-the-art reasoning with drastically fewer parameters. HRM reaches 27 million parameters using a three-level weighted hierarchy, while the simplified TRM distills the architecture to just 7 million parameters yet achieves 87% accuracy on ARC-Prize benchmarks by treating recurrence as a dynamic latent memory tape. These systems overcome historical RNN limitations through Deep Equilibrium Models and latent recursion, offering a pathway to efficient, deep reasoning that diverges from traditional Chain-of-Thought constraints.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Why Aren’t Investors More Worried?
Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan
Despite a sharp market reversal triggered by news of a potential U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the S&P 500 has recovered toward pre-conflict levels as investors discount prolonged escalation risks in favor of a rapid negotiation timeline. Dominic Wilson highlights a critical divergence where equity markets price in economic tolerance while rates markets remain hawkish on inflation, prompting a strategic approach that combines selective long-risk exposure in technology and commodities with aggressive hedging against downside tail events. This cyclical strategy urges investors to capitalize on volatility-driven pullbacks by reinforcing core positions in favorable regions like Japan and Korea while maintaining protection against persistent energy supply disruptions.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
The US-China Tech Race
Mark Kennedy, Paul Triolo, Allison Nathan
The US-China technological rivalry spans four strategic arenas, with Washington retaining dominance in fundamental innovation and China leading in application, infrastructure deployment, and self-sufficiency efforts. While US export controls have stalled China's access to advanced EUV lithography and high-end GPUs, these restrictions are simultaneously accelerating Beijing's parallel development of domestic chip manufacturing and open-source AI models. This dynamic creates a potential future where the US owns core design standards while China controls physical hardware and global markets, though US leadership ultimately hinges on resolving domestic energy grid constraints and sustaining its talent pipelines.
- Y Combinator39 min
Startup Advice: AI GTM, Pivoting & How To Hire
Founders entering legacy industries must select a go-to-market model—typically software-first, full-stack, or acquisition-based—while rigorously tracking automation trajectories to secure software valuations from investors. Strategic execution requires prioritizing mid-market segments for faster feedback loops and securing empowered early adopters, as AI sales tools and high-level marketing hires only succeed after founders have personally mastered their own product-market fit. Ultimately, successful scaling depends on treating hiring as a failure-prevention necessity, leveraging open-source components to build enterprise trust, and maintaining the conviction to pivot when customer conviction indicates a "great" idea is absent.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
How Reliable is Economic Data?
Erica Groshen, Arthur Laffer, Alberto Cavallo, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan
Recent concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data stem from funding cuts, a 15–20% staffing reduction at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the dismissal of its Commissioner by President Trump. Goldman Sachs research indicates that these operational constraints and declining survey responsiveness are increasing standard errors in key indicators like the CPI and JOLTS, creating a risk of data divergence. While current safeguards and institutional checks may prevent a total collapse of credibility, analysts warn that prolonged political interference and resource depletion could eventually erode market trust to the extent seen in Argentina.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Is Fed independence at risk?
Richard Clarida, John Cochrane, Alison Nathan
The Trump administration is actively pursuing legal challenges to overturn the *Humphrey's Executor* precedent, aiming to eliminate "for-cause" protections for Federal Reserve officials and subject them to direct presidential removal. While structural checks like the Federal Open Market Committee's voting system and Senate confirmation remain, this strategy threatens to destabilize financial markets by introducing uncertainty over the central bank's ability to maintain price stability. Experts warn that removing these independence safeguards could distort inflation expectations and encourage mission creep, as the Fed faces pressure to expand beyond its statutory mandate into areas like climate risk and housing policy.
- The Economist21 min
Over the Yoon: South Korea ousts president
Rosie Bloor, Noah Snyder, Duncan Robinson, John Fasman
South Korea's Constitutional Court has upheld the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol for declaring martial law, mandating a snap election within 60 days that leaves opposition leader Lee Jae-myung as the frontrunner amid deepening economic and geopolitical instability. While the ousted president faces a separate criminal trial for insurrection that could carry a life sentence or death penalty, the nation's conservative factions remain fragmented and vulnerable to shifting US trade policies and alliance strategies. This constitutional crisis has simultaneously depressed market confidence and complicated the path toward stabilizing the economy amidst intensifying external pressures.
- a16z23 min
How to spot an AI Deepfake
Over 90% of security attacks now target human behavior, with AI-driven social engineering tactics like deepfakes and voice cloning surging to affect millions globally and enable sophisticated impersonations of corporate leaders and government officials. Experts warn that while current losses are financial, these threats pose imminent risks to critical infrastructure and human safety, driven by open-source models that allow adversaries to automate attacks without significant cost barriers. To counter this evolving landscape, organizations must shift from static compliance training to continuous, adaptive simulations and deploy defensive AI agents capable of countering automated offensive operations.
- Y Combinator29 min
The Right (And Wrong) Way To Spend Money At Your Startup
Brad Flora, Pete Koomen, Nicolas Dessaigne, Gustaf Alströmer, Nicola, Gustav
This presentation outlines a strict capital discipline strategy for startups, emphasizing that pre-seed and seed founders must prioritize product-market fit by avoiding premature hiring and restricting spending to absolute essentials. As companies transition to Series A and beyond, the focus shifts to scaling a predictable revenue engine where growth is fueled only by accretive hiring and retention metrics like Net Dollar Retention. Throughout all stages, the guidance warns against mimicking large corporate structures or overspending on branding, urging founders to maintain transparency and use capital strictly as fuel for validated business models rather than a tool to mask fundamental weaknesses.
- The Economist22 min
I’ll be jammed: electronic warfare in Ukraine
Jason Palmer, Shashank Joshi, Tim Cross
The event analyzes three distinct shifts in modern strategy: the intensifying electronic warfare contest between Russia and Ukraine driving NATO's need for portable spectrum tools, the emergence of carbon monoxide as a hard-to-detect performance enhancer in professional cycling, and the erosion of UK parliamentary oratory driven by social media constraints. Key figures include the Union Cycliste Internationale and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while specific outcomes involve Ukraine's increased local EW production, WADA's pending classification of carbon monoxide, and a century-long decline in parliamentary speech length. Collectively, these developments highlight critical adaptations in military technology, sports regulation, and political communication required to address evolving threats and cultural changes.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
AI Shake-Up and US Exceptionalism
Tony Pasquarello, Josh Schifrin, Dominic Wilson
Dominic Wilson and Josh Schifrin analyze the "DeepSeek" AI disruption as a pivotal shift challenging U.S. dominance while reaffirming persistent corporate spending driven by competitive incentives. The speakers outline a Federal Reserve likely to hold rates steady pending economic clarity, forecasting potential cuts only if labor weakens or inflation trends clearly toward 2%. Despite market volatility, the panel maintains a bullish conviction in global equities and a steeper yield curve, cautioning investors to account for underpriced tariff risks and the evolving complexity of the AI investment landscape.
- The Economist24 min
Reunions and rubble: Gaza’s first moments of peace
Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Anshul Pfeffer, Duncan Robinson, Dolly Setton
A four-day ceasefire in Gaza initiated a two-stage truce that released three Israeli hostages and 90 Palestinian prisoners, while triggering political instability in Israel as far-right ministers resigned and the incoming US administration secured the agreement. This diplomatic breakthrough is followed by complex challenges regarding the billions required for reconstruction and the establishment of a governance model, which remains uncertain without Hamas or the Palestinian Authority leading the effort. Concurrently, the United Kingdom faces wage compression as the new National Living Wage narrows the pay gap between unskilled and skilled labor, while medical research confirms clinical hypnosis reduces procedural pain and anxiety despite barriers to its widespread adoption.
- Y Combinator38 min
2024: The Year the GPT Wrapper Myth Proved Wrong
Jared Harge, Diana, Harj, Lily Yang, Cheng Cheng, Suk Peng, Yiu, Francesc Campoy Flores, Priyanka Vergadia, Anan, Mark Mandelbaum, Melanie Warrick, Mark Mirchandani, Gary Miles, Leslie Kendrick Magnuson, Harjit
The 2024 startup landscape shifted toward capital-efficient growth, where companies like Opus Clip and Perplexity achieved tens of millions in revenue with under $5M in funding by leveraging open-source models and vertical-specific applications. Enterprise adoption accelerated as AI agents attained enterprise-scale reliability, driving a record-breaking aggregate weekly growth rate of 10% for YC batches while converting pilots to revenue at unprecedented speeds. This ecosystem revival was fueled by regulatory relief, a resurgence of in-person Silicon Valley activity, and a strategic pivot from model monopoly to multi-model orchestration that prioritized product execution over raw compute ownership.
- The Economist24 min
Keir eye for the FDI: an interview with Britain’s PM
Keir Starmer, Rosie Bloor, Jason Palmer, Matthew Holhouse, Jeff Carr, Rebecca Jackson
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer launched an International Investment Summit aiming to reverse the UK's decades-long low investment status by streamlining bureaucracy and integrating the Office for Investment directly into Number 10 under Poppy Gustafson. While the strategy offers planning reforms and policy predictability to attract capital, it simultaneously introduces stricter labor market regulations and potential capital taxes through the Employment Rights Bill and October budget. This economic pivot seeks to balance investor needs with worker protections to stimulate productivity, though critics note the risks of a more regulated environment offsetting planning benefits.