Mark Cabana
Showing 1–13 of 13 transcripts.
- Bank of America29 min
Global Rates & FX Views: NFP & refunding review
Sphia Salim, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Meghan Swiber
The July U.S. labor report revealed a net loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls driven by seasonal education declines and reduced hospitality staffing, though private payrolls remained resilient near break-even levels. This data, characterized by falling wage growth and a surprising drop in the unemployment rate due to labor force exit, has shifted Federal Reserve policy expectations toward a dovish stance with diminished probability for September rate hikes. Concurrently, Treasury guidance maintained constant auction sizes while coordinated yen interventions utilized Federal Reserve swap facilities, effectively limiting direct selling pressure on the U.S. debt market.
- Bank of America8 min
Signals & Noise: July FOMC meeting: oil or nothing
At the July 27, 2026 FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh is positioned to reject traditional forward guidance, creating a scenario where Bank of America forecasts a potential surprise rate hike despite market pricing of only a 35–40% probability. This decision may be driven by persistent inflation misses and resilient economic data, potentially prompting dissent votes from regional presidents Logan and Hammock in favor of tighter policy. Such a move would establish a new historical precedent by repricing rates forward while paradoxically flattening the yield curve and pushing long-term Treasury yields lower due to anticipated economic headwinds.
- Bank of America21 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Hyperscalers, credit, & rates
Mark Cabana, Yuri Seliger, Meghan Swiber, Yuri Sigler
U.S. credit markets remain resilient despite a 30% year-over-year supply surge, though hyperscaler bonds have uniquely widened due to Amazon's weak 2.5x subscription and shifting issuance dynamics. While net bond supply remains neutralized by a Treasury bill shift, investment funds are extending duration in IG spreads even as the Federal Reserve faces a 35% probability of an unexpected July rate hike to combat inflation. Future market stability hinges on upcoming hyperscaler earnings and whether issuers maintain aggressive capital raising despite emerging signs of investor demand fatigue.
- Bank of America27 min
MOU-nting inflation concerns
Mark Cabana, Svia Salim, Stephen Junot, Megan Swiber
Bank of America Global Rate Strategy analysts project three additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, driven by sticky core inflation and geopolitical tensions that have pushed European yields to post-2008 highs amid robust demand from life insurers. While BofA forecasts a temporary inflationary spike from World Cup-related spending in June, the bank anticipates the ECB and BOE will remain responsive to oil-driven risks with the Fed shifting from a cutting bias to a hold or hike stance. Consequently, the firm advises clients to maintain an underweight position across the yield curve, particularly at the front end, to mitigate the potential for further rate increases in the coming months.
- Bank of America15 min
Post NFP Call
Ralf Preusser, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen
The July 2 Bureau of Labor Statistics report revealed non-farm payrolls missing consensus with significant downward revisions, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% driven primarily by a decline in labor force participation rather than net job growth. This data reduced immediate expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate hike to 5 basis points and triggered a bull steepening in the yield curve, though strategists maintain that sticky inflation remains the primary catalyst for future monetary tightening. Amidst these shifts, the US economy continues to outperform G10 peers, supporting a Bank of America projection that the US dollar will strengthen through the summer despite a 0.5% post-report pullback driven by hedge fund repositioning.
- Bank of America17 min
Mid-year review
Ralf Preusser, Mark Cabana, Adarsh Sinha
US economic resilience and Federal Reserve Chair Walsh's recent confirmation of a 2026 rate hiking cycle have triggered a broad revision of forecasts, shifting expectations from cuts to three hikes and pushing the US dollar to its strongest level in years. While major central banks like the ECB and BoE maintain unchanged or lower projections, analysts project the dollar to rally into Q3 2026 before facing a reversal in 2027 driven by fading US growth drivers and a global oil surplus. Concurrently, Bank of America Global Research has adopted a neutral-to-bullish stance on the Japanese yen due to improved balance-of-payments dynamics, even as volatility risks rise for the British pound ahead of upcoming UK fiscal events.
- Bank of America27 min
Task force hawkish
Mark Cabana, Aditya Bave, Stephen, Alex Cohen
In a unanimous June vote marking the fourth Federal Reserve chair transition in nearly four decades, policymakers shortened their official statement to omit labor market goals and dissolved transparency norms regarding dissents while establishing five task forces to review internal frameworks. The updated economic projections revealed a sharp hawkish split with nine of eighteen participants forecasting rate hikes this year, driving a consensus that current monetary policy remains insufficient to curb elevated inflation despite supply shocks. This shift in tone and data interpretation triggered an immediate dollar appreciation and led market strategists to adjust positions toward front-end rates and flatteners in anticipation of policy-induced volatility.
- Bank of America36 min
Equities, Fed, BoJ, & you
Mark Cabana, Jill Carey Hall, Aditya Bhave, Oliver Levingston
Strategists from Bank of America Global Research analyzed mid-year market dynamics on June 12, highlighting a divergent outlook where bearish S&P 500 signals coexist with expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike and a Federal Reserve pause. Jill's equity strategy warned of a potential 4% correction driven by extended valuations and sector dispersion, while advising a rotation toward undervalued mid-caps to avoid the rate sensitivity facing small companies. Concurrently, Aditya and Oliver outlined global monetary policy shifts, forecasting that a hawkish drift in Fed expectations and a dovish Japanese stance could reshape asset allocation amidst rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Bank of America22 min
Summit, yen-tervention, & US rates
Mark Cabana, Adarsh Sinha, Meghan Swiber
On May 15, global rates experienced bear steepening while equities and AI stocks reached new highs despite unresolved geopolitical tensions and a lack of new trade barriers following the U.S.-China summit. Market strategists forecast increased upside risk for U.S. rate hikes and maintain a tactical bullish view on the dollar, driven by unsustainable rate differentials and ongoing intervention pressures in Japan. Concurrently, expectations for new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh center on his potential to shorten the balance sheet's weighted average maturity and his anticipated dovish reaction to stagflation risks at the upcoming June FOMC meeting.
- Bank of America17 min
Policy Derby: Rates for the Roses
Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel, Katie, Mark Capleton, Yamada, Ivan, Ronald Man
Recent central bank communications from the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England have shifted global rate expectations toward potential increases or prolonged tightening driven by persistent inflation and oil prices. BofA strategists analyze these diverging stances to forecast bear flattening or steepening curves, while warning that fiscal risks and liquidity dynamics in the US Treasury market may further impact asset valuations. Ultimately, the analysis suggests a complex interplay where hawkish signals from the Fed and BoC contrast with dovish adjustments in the UK, creating volatility for sovereign yields and foreign exchange interventions.
- Bank of America25 min
A changing Federal Reserve
Sphia Salim, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen, Kevin Warsh, Zviya Salim
Kevin Walsh's Senate confirmation hearing strategy prioritizes securing a mandate for steady rates by emphasizing AI-driven productivity gains and full employment while avoiding direct calls for rate cuts. Concurrently, market analysts anticipate a prolonged pause in monetary policy, with a baseline forecast of potential cuts in September and October contingent on softer labor data and fading tariff effects. Despite Walsh's intentions to unilaterally alter communication protocols and shorten the duration of the Fed's balance sheet, these structural shifts face significant hurdles in convincing FOMC colleagues or fundamentally altering the central bank's current trajectory toward a flat rate path.
- Bank of America20 min
Payroll call
Ralf Preusser, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen, Shruti Mishra, Aditya Parve
The April 8, 2024, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report revealed a resilient labor market with back-to-back job gains that narrowed the divergence between establishment and household surveys. In response to these findings and persistent inflation data, Bank of America strategists have revised their Federal Reserve policy forecast to eliminate 2024 rate cuts and shift expectations to mid-2025. Consequently, global fixed-income strategists have adjusted their front-end yield curve positioning to anticipate a higher-for-longer interest rate environment while monitoring upcoming CPI and retail sales data for further confirmation.
- Bank of America9 min
Must Read Research: Weather & Commodity Risks; Fed Hikes; EU Trade Dynamics and Evolving Consumers
Candace Browning, Mark Cabana, Horst Schneider, Lorraine Hutchinson
A 2026 market analysis highlights severe El Niño-driven disruptions to global grain and sugar supplies alongside tightening U.S. corn balances that could push prices above $6 per bushel. Concurrently, resilient payroll growth and accelerating inflation suggest the Federal Reserve must raise rates to approximately 4% by year-end, a move likely underpriced by current market expectations. In global trade, Chinese automakers doubled their European market share to 8% in Q1 2026 while second-hand apparel spending surged 38%, reflecting shifting consumer dynamics and intensified geopolitical trade flows.