Latest Interviews
Showing 16–24 of 24 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Bank of America22 min
Inflation and the inflation markets
Mark Capleton, Stephen Juneau, Alessandro Infelise-Zhou, Meghan Swiber
Strategists attribute the current surge in US inflation to Iran-related energy shocks, supply chain pressures, and AI-driven capital expenditure, while noting weaker fiscal stimulus compared to the pandemic era has kept demand-side inflation subdued. Although the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates until labor market signals improve, forecasts now suggest a first 50-basis-point cut will not occur until the second half of 2026, whereas the Euro Area and UK anticipate earlier ECB rate hikes in mid-2025 followed by a slower cut cycle starting in 2027. Market positioning has shifted to short duration and long risk assets despite underpriced tail risks from prolonged conflict, as five-year inflation expectations remain anchored and European real rates continue to support a bullish bond stance.
- Bank of America18 min
Bond market selloff
Sphia Salim, Zviya Salim, Mark Yamashita, Agni, Edward
On May 22, global bond markets underwent a significant sell-off driven by inflation concerns and supply fears, with the US Treasury market stabilizing amid US-Iran negotiation headlines while Japanese and UK markets faced distinct fiscal and political pressures. Central bank policy reassessments, particularly regarding Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Morse and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda, have shifted investor expectations toward potential rate hikes despite underlying growth softness in the Eurozone. Consequently, positioning across US, Japanese, and UK gilts has adapted to a landscape where real rates are rising, though recent commodity stabilization and election outcomes have sparked partial reversals in volatility.
- Bank of America27 min
Why we believe AI reshapes work more so than it reduces overall payrolls
Benson Wu, Nick Stenner, TJ Thornton
BofA Global Research contends that generative AI will primarily augment human labor and reshape specific tasks rather than cause mass job elimination, with only 2.3% of global roles facing high automation potential while 13% offer significant augmentation opportunities. The report projects a shift toward new AI specialist roles, hybrid professionals, and human-centric services in sectors like healthcare, noting that advanced economies possess the infrastructure to adapt despite risks of capital concentration and entry-level wage dispersion. Macroeconomic analysis suggests these productivity gains will be disinflationary over the long term, potentially allowing central banks flexibility on interest rates even as transition costs and uneven gains create short-term policy complexities.
- Bank of America19 min
Ceasefire, rates and the US consumer
Ralf Preusser, Bruno Braizinha, Sophia Salim, David Tinsley, Sfia Salim, Bruno Brasenia
Driven by persistent energy supply shocks and uncertain inflation baselines, market analysts project a limited number of European Central Bank rate hikes, with 10-year yields forecast to decline toward 2.9% before falling further to 2.7% by 2027 as growth risks persist. Concurrently, the volatility landscape reflects a regional divergence where European markets lag US levels due to rich pricing, while Asian markets like China demonstrate unique immunity to geopolitical tensions. In the US, consumer spending remains robust at a 3.2% annualized rate fueled by tax refunds and wage growth, creating a K-shaped recovery where higher-income groups drive discretionary gains despite rising gasoline costs.
- Bank of America22 min
Summit, yen-tervention, & US rates
Mark Cabana, Adarsh Sinha, Meghan Swiber
On May 15, global rates experienced bear steepening while equities and AI stocks reached new highs despite unresolved geopolitical tensions and a lack of new trade barriers following the U.S.-China summit. Market strategists forecast increased upside risk for U.S. rate hikes and maintain a tactical bullish view on the dollar, driven by unsustainable rate differentials and ongoing intervention pressures in Japan. Concurrently, expectations for new Federal Reserve Chair Warsh center on his potential to shorten the balance sheet's weighted average maturity and his anticipated dovish reaction to stagflation risks at the upcoming June FOMC meeting.
- Bank of America17 min
Policy Derby: Rates for the Roses
Mark Cabana, Ralph Axel, Katie, Mark Capleton, Yamada, Ivan, Ronald Man
Recent central bank communications from the Federal Reserve, ECB, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England have shifted global rate expectations toward potential increases or prolonged tightening driven by persistent inflation and oil prices. BofA strategists analyze these diverging stances to forecast bear flattening or steepening curves, while warning that fiscal risks and liquidity dynamics in the US Treasury market may further impact asset valuations. Ultimately, the analysis suggests a complex interplay where hawkish signals from the Fed and BoC contrast with dovish adjustments in the UK, creating volatility for sovereign yields and foreign exchange interventions.
- Bank of America25 min
A changing Federal Reserve
Sphia Salim, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen, Kevin Warsh, Zviya Salim
Kevin Walsh's Senate confirmation hearing strategy prioritizes securing a mandate for steady rates by emphasizing AI-driven productivity gains and full employment while avoiding direct calls for rate cuts. Concurrently, market analysts anticipate a prolonged pause in monetary policy, with a baseline forecast of potential cuts in September and October contingent on softer labor data and fading tariff effects. Despite Walsh's intentions to unilaterally alter communication protocols and shorten the duration of the Fed's balance sheet, these structural shifts face significant hurdles in convincing FOMC colleagues or fundamentally altering the central bank's current trajectory toward a flat rate path.
- Bank of America20 min
Payroll call
Ralf Preusser, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen, Shruti Mishra, Aditya Parve
The April 8, 2024, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report revealed a resilient labor market with back-to-back job gains that narrowed the divergence between establishment and household surveys. In response to these findings and persistent inflation data, Bank of America strategists have revised their Federal Reserve policy forecast to eliminate 2024 rate cuts and shift expectations to mid-2025. Consequently, global fixed-income strategists have adjusted their front-end yield curve positioning to anticipate a higher-for-longer interest rate environment while monitoring upcoming CPI and retail sales data for further confirmation.
- Bank of America15 min
Inflation markets
Ralf Preusser, Mark Capleton, Meghan Swiber
Analysts examine the $4 trillion inflation-linked bond market to highlight how fiscal constraints in the UK and Eurozone have created supply scarcity while instrument mechanics drive persistent basis disparities between swaps and cash markets. Despite theoretical stagflation models predicting lower real yields, current data shows a market anomaly where US real yields have risen alongside compressed long-term inflation expectations. Consequently, investors are advised to fade the recent spike in short-term real yields, as this pricing disconnect challenges the Federal Reserve's dual mandate without indicating an immediate risk of unanchored inflation expectations.