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Stephen Juneau

Showing 1–3 of 3 transcripts.

  1. Bank of America18 min

    Global Rates & FX Views: Rates and inflation

    Ralf Preusser, Mark Capleton, Evelyn Herrmann, Stephen Juneau, Meghan Swiber, Evelyn Hammond, Stephen Juno, Peggy Zweiber

    BIA Global Research forecasts Eurozone headline inflation to rise to 3.9% in September while projecting a moderate December rate hike by the ECB, contingent on energy prices remaining elevated. In the United States, the firm anticipates a methodological revision will lower the PCE rate, yet underlying inflation remains persistently 50 basis points above the Fed's target, sustaining a high probability for an October rate increase. To capitalize on these divergent outlooks, BIA advocates for a long position in forward-starting real-yield curve flatteners and long-dated 10-year to 20-year inflation swaps due to perceived market over-optimism regarding future inflation containment.

  2. Bank of America29 min

    Global Rates & FX Views: CPI, Fed, & buyback implications

    Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Stephen Juneau, Meghan Swiber, Ralph Axel

    Core CPI inflation surprised higher at 0.3% month-over-month, driven largely by volatile wireless and airfare costs that have pushed core PCE projections to 3.1%–3.2%. This data reinforces a market consensus that underlying inflation remains "stuck" above the 2% target, leading to an over 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Consequently, strategists anticipate a hawkish press conference from Chair Powell and a flattening yield curve as investors align expectations with a likely three-hike trajectory for the remainder of the year.

  3. Bank of America22 min

    Inflation and the inflation markets

    Mark Capleton, Stephen Juneau, Alessandro Infelise-Zhou, Meghan Swiber

    Strategists attribute the current surge in US inflation to Iran-related energy shocks, supply chain pressures, and AI-driven capital expenditure, while noting weaker fiscal stimulus compared to the pandemic era has kept demand-side inflation subdued. Although the Federal Reserve is likely to hold rates until labor market signals improve, forecasts now suggest a first 50-basis-point cut will not occur until the second half of 2026, whereas the Euro Area and UK anticipate earlier ECB rate hikes in mid-2025 followed by a slower cut cycle starting in 2027. Market positioning has shifted to short duration and long risk assets despite underpriced tail risks from prolonged conflict, as five-year inflation expectations remain anchored and European real rates continue to support a bullish bond stance.