Latest Interviews
Showing 16–30 of 30 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Middle East risks
Edward P. Djerejian, Emile Hokayem, Alison Nathan
Former U.S. Ambassador Edward Jerijian and IIS Senior Fellow Emile Hokeyem analyze how the October 7th attacks successfully recentered the Palestinian cause while triggering a broader regional conflict involving Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Experts warn that although Hamas has achieved its goal of ending the marginalization of Palestine, Israel remains committed to its military destruction while facing significant risks of miscalculation due to Hezbollah's involvement and disruptions to global oil flows. The prevailing consensus identifies a two-state solution as the only viable long-term resolution, yet current Israeli political constraints and the absence of credible Palestinian leadership render such a framework impossible in the immediate future.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
What China’s struggling property sector means for the global economy and markets
Kenneth Ho, Hui Shan, Yi Wang, Alison Nathan, Ken Ho
With China's property sector accounting for 30% of national GDP, the market correction since 2021 has triggered a liquidity crisis affecting roughly 70% of top developers and suppressed GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2023. Despite outstanding debt reaching $8.4 trillion, Goldman Sachs analysts and the People's Bank of China argue that systemic banking collapse remains unlikely due to lower household leverage and distinct structural differences from the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis. However, resolving the crisis requires a strategic pivot toward managing secondary market oversupply and restoring consumer confidence, as current easing measures have failed to address the fundamental mismatch between developer inventory and urban purchasing power.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Is US outperformance at a turning point?
Rebecca Patterson, Jean Boivin, Peter Oppenheimer, Alison Nathan
Bridgewater's Rebecca Patterson, BlackRock's Jean Boivin, and Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer debated the durability of U.S. equities, contrasting the bull case for AI-driven productivity against bearish concerns regarding aging demographics and geopolitical shifts. While Patterson advocates for maintaining a U.S. overweight based on structural technological advantages, Oppenheimer suggests narrowing profit differentials warrant regional diversification. Ultimately, the consensus highlights a transition from broad index outperformance to selective alpha generation, with Boivin recommending strategic caution in public equities in favor of government debt and thematic private credit opportunities.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Commercial real estate risks
Scott Rechler, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Alison Nathan, Sten van Nuremberg
Distinguished voices Scott Reckler and Sten van Nieuwerberg diverge on the severity of the commercial real estate crisis, with Reckler predicting a bifurcated market and slow stabilization by 2025 while van Nieuwerberg argues for a structural decline affecting even premium assets. Both experts warn that $2.6 trillion in maturing loans and restrictive lending standards will trigger a "train wreck in slow motion" forcing the conversion of obsolete office space, though physical constraints limit viable housing transitions to a small fraction of the stock. Consequently, regional banks face severe distress as asset values plummet 40–60%, potentially wiping out equity and precipitating a banking consolidation comparable to the 1980s S&L crisis or a mild recession driven by a credit crunch.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Why global equities are poised for “fat and flat” returns
Peter Oppenheimer, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. equity markets will enter a "fat and flat" phase characterized by modest growth and high valuations, as investors pivot from the TINA strategy to the TERRA framework where risk-free yields offer a viable alternative. While recent volatility has eased and profit growth remains minimal, the firm anticipates a shift from narrow tech-led gains to broader global opportunities in Europe and Asia as rate hikes near their peak. Consequently, the strategy recommends a diversified portfolio approach to navigate margin compression and capture alpha across regions rather than relying on concentrated U.S. outperformance.
- Goldman Sachs39 min
How countries and companies are reshaping their supply chains
Andrew Tilton, Luke Barrs, Richard Hill, Alison Nathan
Driven by pandemic disruptions and U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, a structural shift toward supply chain resilience is replacing pure cost efficiency with a "China plus one" diversification strategy among multinational corporations. Government policies, including the U.S. CHIPS Act and India's production-linked incentives, are actively accelerating capital investment in domestic manufacturing and critical minerals to secure economic sovereignty. While experts like Andrew Tilton and Luke Bars view this as an enduring trend of "slowing globalization" that benefits nations such as Vietnam and Mexico, critics warn that the inevitable loss of efficiency and lack of a specialized workforce may lead to higher consumer costs rather than full self-sufficiency.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
U.S.-China: more decoupling ahead?
Graham Allison, Dan Rosen, Alison Nathan
Graham Allison characterizes current U.S.-China relations as the worst in over fifty years, driven by a historical Thucydides Trap and diverging national identities, while Dan Rosen identifies systemic economic model divergence as a primary engine of decoupling. Despite intensifying geopolitical tensions and collapsing foreign direct investment flows outside of a handful of major corporations, Allison advocates for a "rivalry partnership" framework to manage competition on existential threats like climate change and nuclear stability. The outlook suggests that while Biden's upcoming investment curbs will serve primarily as notification regimes, a sustained reduction in engagement remains probable unless Beijing implements decisive market reforms to address its stagnating productivity.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Breaking Down the Dollar’s Rise
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts project further U.S. dollar appreciation driven by America's overheating economy and the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes, which contrast with the constrained monetary policies of the ECB, BOJ, and PBOC. While this strength aids U.S. inflation goals, it forces non-U.S. economies into a difficult trade-off between accepting currency depreciation or risking domestic growth through aggressive tightening, with emerging markets facing severe debt vulnerabilities. Exceptions like the Brazilian real and Mexican peso have resisted these trends by initiating earlier rate hikes, yet analysts anticipate the dollar's dominance will persist until U.S. inflation peaks and global growth stabilizes, unlikely before 2023.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will Slaying Inflation Require Recession?
Jan Hatzius, Olivier Blanchard, Alison Nathan
Olivier Blanchard and Jan Hatzius present conflicting views on whether the post-pandemic labor market can rebalance through reduced vacancies without triggering a recession, with Blanchard predicting unemployment must rise to 6–7% to tame inflation while Hatzius forecasts a modest 4.2% increase by late 2024. Blanchard attributes current structural mismatches and wage-price spirals to a higher natural rate of unemployment requiring severe economic contraction, whereas Hatzius attributes high vacancies to temporary supply constraints that are now resolving through decelerating growth rather than layoffs. The debate highlights divergent recession probabilities, with Blanchard viewing a downturn as inevitable under current Fed tightening and Hatzius estimating a 30% chance over the next year as the economy navigates a potential soft landing.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
Is (De)globalization Ahead?
Adam Posen, Dani Rodrik, Jim O'Neill, Alison Nathan, Danny Roderick
At a recent economic symposium, Adam Posen, Danny Rodrick, and Jim O'Neill debated whether the post-Cold War era of globalization is facing a reversal or merely a structural shift driven by the Ukraine war and pandemic. While Posen and Rodrick warn that geopolitical friction is fragmenting the global economy into U.S. and Chinese blocs that may reinforce secular stagnation, O'Neill counters that trade growth has recently accelerated and argues for profit-focused reforms to address inequality. The consensus suggests that future economic stability will depend less on international trade frameworks and more on domestic policies prioritizing labor rights, technology dissemination, and the mitigation of inequality.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Europe’s Digital Economy: What’s Driving Europe’s Tech Acceleration
Lisa Yang, Alexander Duval, Alison Nathan
Driven by supportive policies and pandemic-induced acceleration, Europe's digital economy has doubled its number of tech unicorns and tripled venture capital funding to nearly $92 billion while legacy firms like L'Oréal and SAP pivot to Direct-to-Consumer strategies. Amidst a significant correction in public markets, investor focus has shifted toward profitability, yet private valuations remain robust for early-stage companies as the European Chips Act mobilizes €40 billion to address semiconductor bottlenecks. With geopolitical tensions reshaping supply chain priorities and niche sectors like online education showing low penetration, the region continues to leverage its global leadership in hardware and B2B verticals to capture substantial future growth.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
The Next Tech Battleground: Online Gaming & the Metaverse
Jung Min, Alison Nathan, Zhang Min
The global gaming industry has matured into a $200 billion sector driven by live operations and recurring revenue, prompting a wave of strategic mergers and acquisitions to diversify portfolios and secure market dominance. Major technology leaders like Microsoft and Tencent are now allocating significant capital to gaming as a foundational pathway for the metaverse and Web 3.0, viewing the sector as a critical incubator for future digital infrastructure. This ongoing platform shift, which mirrors the transition from desktop to mobile, is projected to create new monetization models and drive substantial global economic growth over the next decade.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Outlook for Global Growth: Less Synchronized, More Complicated
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a November 2021 announcement for asset purchase tapering while Goldman Sachs lowered its 2021 U.S. GDP growth forecast to 6% amid rising virus cases and global supply chain disruptions. Despite revising core PCE inflation expectations upward to 3.75% for the current year, the central bank anticipates the spike will remain temporary and defer rate hikes until potentially mid-2023. This cautious stance aims to balance the risk of new viral variants and the expiration of unemployment benefits, which together are expected to drive approximately 1.5 million additional jobs by late 2021.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
How Are Investors Navigating China’s Regulatory Uncertainty?
Stephanie Hui, Basak Yavuz, Prakriti Sofat, Alison Nathan
Amidst rapid regulatory shifts in China's ed-tech, cybersecurity, and antitrust sectors, Goldman Sachs advocates a neutral to overweight stance on Chinese equities while targeting decarbonization and self-sufficiency themes. Private market investors are reorienting capital toward sustainable business models and ESG-aligned "S" factors, viewing recent valuation corrections as a strategic opportunity rather than a fundamental departure. Although volatility has pressured specific property and technology segments, the broader consensus points to a structural realignment favoring companies demonstrating societal benefit and long-term resilience.