Latest Interviews
Showing 76–90 of 131 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Middle East risks
Edward P. Djerejian, Emile Hokayem, Alison Nathan
Former U.S. Ambassador Edward Jerijian and IIS Senior Fellow Emile Hokeyem analyze how the October 7th attacks successfully recentered the Palestinian cause while triggering a broader regional conflict involving Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Experts warn that although Hamas has achieved its goal of ending the marginalization of Palestine, Israel remains committed to its military destruction while facing significant risks of miscalculation due to Hezbollah's involvement and disruptions to global oil flows. The prevailing consensus identifies a two-state solution as the only viable long-term resolution, yet current Israeli political constraints and the absence of credible Palestinian leadership render such a framework impossible in the immediate future.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Why the global economy and markets can continue to outperform in 2024
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs reports that the global economy outperformed 2023 forecasts, with the U.S. avoiding recession through post-pandemic normalization while equity markets mispriced resilience against aggressive rate hikes. Looking ahead to 2024, the firm projects modest global growth and declining inflation, predicting that risky assets like equities and commodities will outperform cash as central banks approach a peak in policy rates before gradual cuts begin in the second half of the year. Despite elevated long-term interest rates and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions, the investment strategy emphasizes a shift toward diversified portfolios to capitalize on AI-driven earnings and supply-side commodity pressures.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Commercial real estate risks
Scott Rechler, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Alison Nathan, Sten van Nuremberg
Distinguished voices Scott Reckler and Sten van Nieuwerberg diverge on the severity of the commercial real estate crisis, with Reckler predicting a bifurcated market and slow stabilization by 2025 while van Nieuwerberg argues for a structural decline affecting even premium assets. Both experts warn that $2.6 trillion in maturing loans and restrictive lending standards will trigger a "train wreck in slow motion" forcing the conversion of obsolete office space, though physical constraints limit viable housing transitions to a small fraction of the stock. Consequently, regional banks face severe distress as asset values plummet 40–60%, potentially wiping out equity and precipitating a banking consolidation comparable to the 1980s S&L crisis or a mild recession driven by a credit crunch.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Emerging market equities poised to overtake developed market equities
Presentations by financial strategists project a structural shift where emerging market equity capitalization rises to 55% of the global total by 2075, driven primarily by the transition of private assets to public markets and sustained GDP growth in nations like India and China. While demographic shifts and potential protectionism pose risks, the long-term outlook favors diversifying away from US exceptionalism toward a globally balanced portfolio to capture higher earnings growth and rising valuation multiples. This strategic pivot anticipates that seven of the ten largest economies in 2075 will be current emerging markets, fundamentally altering the landscape of global investment returns.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
How companies, private equity firms, and institutional investors are navigating the global economy
Goldman Sachs executive Jim Esposito outlines a global economic landscape marked by regional divergence, shifting private equity dynamics, and a pivot from "hard landing" fears to a "soft landing" consensus. While corporate balance sheets are historically strong and commodity prices signal recovery, the event highlights persistent risks stemming from geopolitical fragmentation, an anemic IPO market, and liquidity concerns within the unregulated non-bank sector. Esposito anticipates that despite these challenges and an approaching U.S. election, the financial system remains resilient due to post-2008 regulatory safeguards and continued private sector innovation.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Why the U.K.’s high inflation has global implications
Jari Stehn, George Cole, Alison Nathan, Yari Shteyn
Amidst a unique confluence of labor shortages and energy shocks, UK headline inflation remains at 8% as the Bank of England prepares for a series of rate hikes to a terminal level of 5.75%. Goldman Sachs forecasts a slower disinflation path that will likely trigger a fiscal drag on GDP and heighten the risk of recession to 40%, while mortgage costs surge and household consumption stagnates. Despite these headwinds, improving terms of trade and a more aggressive monetary stance relative to global peers are projected to drive the pound higher against the dollar and euro over the coming year.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Why ‘everything aligns’ for Japanese stocks
Driven by corporate governance reforms and a return of foreign investors, Japan's TOPIX has surged to levels not seen since 1990 as the economy transitions from deflationary stagnation to wage growth and inflation. Goldman Sachs forecasts the index to reach $2,400 by year-end and $2,500 within twelve months, recommending a barbell strategy targeting undervalued machinery and banking sectors. This outlook persists despite risks from potential US and Chinese revenue slowdowns and anticipated central bank policy adjustments.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Why global equities are poised for “fat and flat” returns
Peter Oppenheimer, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. equity markets will enter a "fat and flat" phase characterized by modest growth and high valuations, as investors pivot from the TINA strategy to the TERRA framework where risk-free yields offer a viable alternative. While recent volatility has eased and profit growth remains minimal, the firm anticipates a shift from narrow tech-led gains to broader global opportunities in Europe and Asia as rate hikes near their peak. Consequently, the strategy recommends a diversified portfolio approach to navigate margin compression and capture alpha across regions rather than relying on concentrated U.S. outperformance.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
What’s ahead for the U.S. economy?
Goldman Sachs projects a 25% probability of a U.S. recession this year, significantly below the consensus view of over 60%, driven by a labor market rebalancing that reduced the jobs-to-workers gap without triggering mass unemployment. The firm forecasts core PCE inflation to fall from the high 3s to the Fed's 2% target by 2025, supported by moderating shelter costs, stabilized supply chains, and improved inflation psychology. Despite expecting two additional Federal Reserve rate hikes and moderate credit tightening from recent banking stress, the outlook remains optimistic that these factors will support a soft landing and real income growth through 2024 and 2025.
- Goldman Sachs39 min
How countries and companies are reshaping their supply chains
Andrew Tilton, Luke Barrs, Richard Hill, Alison Nathan
Driven by pandemic disruptions and U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, a structural shift toward supply chain resilience is replacing pure cost efficiency with a "China plus one" diversification strategy among multinational corporations. Government policies, including the U.S. CHIPS Act and India's production-linked incentives, are actively accelerating capital investment in domestic manufacturing and critical minerals to secure economic sovereignty. While experts like Andrew Tilton and Luke Bars view this as an enduring trend of "slowing globalization" that benefits nations such as Vietnam and Mexico, critics warn that the inevitable loss of efficiency and lack of a specialized workforce may lead to higher consumer costs rather than full self-sufficiency.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
Why the ‘great de-stocking’ in oil and commodities could pave the way for future gains
Goldman Sachs forecasts a market transition from a historic destocking phase to a substantial deficit by summer, projecting oil prices to reach $97 per barrel and gold to hit $2,050 by year-end. The firm attributes current low prices to the liquidation of 500 million barrels in physical and paper inventories while maintaining that resilient green infrastructure demand and OPEC+ supply constraints will drive a sharp price rebound if recession fears prove overpriced. Strategic analysis highlights copper as a long-term decarbonization play and suggests that commodity levels currently serve as an effective hedge against persistent inflation and elevated interest rates.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
Investing during times of market stress
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alison Nathan
The panel outlines a structural market shift from the stable "buy and hold" era to a volatile late-cycle environment where traditional 60-40 portfolios face reduced efficacy due to positive equity-bond correlations and persistent inflation risks. Experts advocate for dynamic tactical allocation strategies that incorporate gold, international equities, and private markets to diversify away from stressed public assets, while cautioning that low realized equity volatility masks a significant rotation toward mega-cap tech that obscures underlying recessionary tail risks. With the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting expectations largely priced in, portfolio managers are urged to prioritize quality equities and defensive positioning as the US labor market and debt ceiling remain critical catalysts for potential market repricing.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
U.S.-China: more decoupling ahead?
Graham Allison, Dan Rosen, Alison Nathan
Graham Allison characterizes current U.S.-China relations as the worst in over fifty years, driven by a historical Thucydides Trap and diverging national identities, while Dan Rosen identifies systemic economic model divergence as a primary engine of decoupling. Despite intensifying geopolitical tensions and collapsing foreign direct investment flows outside of a handful of major corporations, Allison advocates for a "rivalry partnership" framework to manage competition on existential threats like climate change and nuclear stability. The outlook suggests that while Biden's upcoming investment curbs will serve primarily as notification regimes, a sustained reduction in engagement remains probable unless Beijing implements decisive market reforms to address its stagnating productivity.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
What happens if the U.S. government can’t pay its bills?
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that the federal government faces a potential cash shortage by June 1, 2023, if the House and Senate fail to raise the $31.381 trillion statutory borrowing limit. Political negotiations are intensifying between President Biden and House Republicans regarding a deficit reduction plan, yet the narrow legislative majority and tight calendar significantly increase the risk of a last-minute default. Such a failure would force the Treasury to prioritize debt service over Social Security and federal salaries, likely triggering immediate market volatility and economic contraction.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
How Porsche CEO Oliver Blume is driving innovation
Oliver Blume, Christoph Stanger, Alison Nathan
Porsche's recent European IPO, the largest by market capitalization in the region, successfully secured billions in cornerstone commitments from Goldman Sachs to stabilize the offering amidst macro volatility. CEO Oliver Blum now directs the company toward a "Road to 20" strategy aiming for over 20% return on sales by leveraging Volkswagen Group scale while maintaining luxury pricing power. The automaker targets 80% global electric deliveries by 2030, aligning its product roadmap with regional recovery trends in China and North America to capitalize on its 75th anniversary as a sports car manufacturer.