Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 21 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs20 min
What the Surge in IPOs Means for Investors
Jay Ritter, Owen Lamont, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Research reports that the U.S. IPO market reached record issuance levels in 2026 while maintaining average valuations that distinguish current activity from historical speculative bubbles. Analyst Jay Ritter and Owen Lamont offer diverging perspectives on this surge, with Ritter arguing deep capital markets can absorb new supply without overvaluation, whereas Lamont warns that a massive wave of issuance signals the early stages of a potential bubble. Both experts agree that structural shifts, including expanded private markets and industry consolidation, have permanently reduced the average annual IPO count to roughly 100, fundamentally altering the relationship between new listings and future market returns.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
How Will AI Impact the Labor Market?
Daron Acemoglu, Neil Thompson, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan
Experts from Goldman Sachs and MIT project that while AI will displace tens of millions of U.S. workers over the next decade through significant labor reallocation, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by less than one percentage point annually as new job creation offsets automation. The consensus indicates a gradual transition driven by integration barriers rather than sudden mass layoffs, though disagreement persists regarding short-term net employment impacts depending on whether firms prioritize replacing or complementing human labor. Recorded in June 2026, these forecasts highlight that the trajectory of inequality and total job levels will ultimately depend on whether AI development focuses on automating routine cognitive tasks or augmenting high-value human expertise.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
‘Affordability’: Consumer Concerns and Government Proposals
David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Allison Nathan
Amidst a persistent housing affordability crisis driven by regulatory constraints and construction labor shortages, the administration has relied on reactive executive orders to utilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac capacity rather than enacting comprehensive legislative reforms. While these measures aim to modestly lower mortgage rates through increased mortgage-backed security purchases and a ban on institutional single-family home purchases, they fail to address the root causes of supply scarcity or deliver immediate price relief for homeowners. Future policy focus is expected to shift toward zoning incentives and speculative tariff rebates, though significant progress remains hindered by the need for congressional approval and the long-term nature of structural housing deficits.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
After a Summer of Stablecoins, What’s Next?
Brian Brooks, Barry Eichengreen, Allison Nathan
The U.S. "Genius Act" establishes a comprehensive federal framework for stablecoins that mandates full backing by high-quality assets like U.S. Treasury bills while subjecting issuers to national bank-style supervision. Key figures Brian Brooks and Barry Eichengreen debate the legislation's efficacy, with Brooks advocating for private innovation and treasury demand growth while Eichengreen warns of systemic risks to the singleness of money and potential taxpayer liabilities. Despite these conflicting views on financial stability, the regulatory clarity is expected to dismantle existing market monopolies and accelerate mass adoption across savings, remittances, and commercial payment sectors.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
Will legal challenges end the trade war?
A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of International Trade blocked most of President Trump's sweeping tariffs in a May 29, 2025 ruling, determining that the executive branch lacked the intelligible limits required to impose duties on Canada, China, and Mexico under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. While the administration plans to appeal to the Supreme Court and may shift toward temporary Section 122 tariffs or sector-specific Section 301 investigations to maintain revenue, the decision significantly alters the legal landscape by invalidating the broad, unlimited authority claimed by the previous strategy. This pivotal judgment introduces substantial market uncertainty regarding future tariff levels and fiscal projections, as analysts anticipate a transition from across-the-board rates to more restrictive, country-specific measures.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Are credit investors nervous about recession risk?
Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist Lotfi Karawi attributes recent corporate bond spread widening to a necessary realignment with macro volatility rather than a recessionary collapse, noting that fundamentals remain robust while investors demand higher risk premiums due to trade and policy uncertainties. The firm forecasts Investment Grade spreads to peak between 120 and 125 basis points as market sentiment normalizes, a move that remains far from the 200-basis-point levels required to signal true recessionary stress. Despite the repricing, total return outlooks stay positive supported by high treasury yields, prompting a strategic shift toward defensive, high-quality instruments like agency mortgages while reducing exposure to lower-rated carry trades.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
Trump’s tariffs: Big talk or big action?
Trump, Jeff Gerrish, Allison Nathan
The current administration is deploying aggressive tariff policies to reshape U.S. manufacturing, secure national security in strategic sectors, and address geopolitical concerns like fentanyl trafficking. While market volatility is intentionally leveraged to force negotiation concessions, a coordinated strategy involving hawkish figures aims to replace bilateral deals with a reciprocal global tariff system by the April 1st deadline. Despite legal challenges, these measures are designed to correct trade imbalances and extend beyond the scope of previous administrations to fundamentally alter international trade dynamics.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Will Fed policy trigger a US recession?
Allison Nathan, Claudia Sahm, Bill Dudley, Rob Kaplan, Alyssa Nathan
Following the technical activation of the Sahm Rule in July 2024, leading economists are divided on the likelihood of an imminent U.S. recession, with estimates ranging from Goldman Sachs' 20% probability to Bill Dudley's 60% forecast based on conflicting interpretations of labor supply shifts and demand destruction. While Fed Chair Powell signals impending rate cuts, experts like Claudia Sahm and Dudley warn that monetary policy risks lagging behind structural economic shifts, potentially turning a soft landing into an unforced recession if the central bank fails to act decisively. The prevailing base case anticipates a mild downturn or no contraction if the Federal Reserve successfully lowers borrowing costs, though divergent views persist regarding whether current unemployment data reflects a genuine demand shock or a temporary labor force anomaly.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Breaking Free: The rise of corporate separations
David Dubner, Sharath Sharma, Allison Nathan
Driven by an elevated cost of capital and a strategic pivot toward simplification, over 30 global corporate separations were announced in 2022 as companies in sectors like pharmaceuticals and industrials seek to unlock portfolio discounts through operational focus. These transactions, typically closing within 9 to 13 months with internal leaders assuming over 80% of NewCo CEO roles, historically generate mid-single-digit outperformance against the S&P 500 within two years. By optimizing capital allocation and enabling targeted M&A, these divestitures serve as a critical mechanism for "shrinking to grow," allowing both RemainCos and NewCos to accelerate executive cycles and achieve value creation previously unattainable within diversified conglomerates.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
Navigating the new geopolitical and technology landscape
George Lee, Jared Cohen, Allison Nathan
High geopolitical uncertainty and the rise of "swing states" are forcing a shift from broad regional strategies to country-specific tactics as nations leverage distinct advantages in technology and supply chains. With geopolitical drivers now overpowering traditional economic interests, major powers are engaging in asymmetric competition over critical technologies like semiconductors and AI, creating an "impedance mismatch" between slow government regulation and rapid technological evolution. To navigate this landscape, leaders must integrate deep geopolitical analysis with commercial insights to mitigate risks and capitalize on the emerging "geocommercial" opportunities across these fragmented global markets.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Amid rising inflation and slowing growth, how is the U.S. consumer faring?
David Mericle, Kate McShane, Eric Sheridan, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists project U.S. consumption growth will stabilize near 1% in late 2022 and 2023 as falling household wealth and the expiration of pandemic stimulus offset modest gains in real disposable income. While retail growth remains price-driven with consumers prioritizing essential goods over big-ticket items, the technology sector faces a shift toward lower single-digit growth rates focused on free cash flow visibility. Looking ahead, industry participants anticipate normalized supply chains and a balanced mix of unit and price growth in 2023, though retailers must manage elevated inventory levels through targeted promotions to offset slowing demand.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Crypto Volatility: What’s the Outlook for Digital Assets?
Mathew McDermott, Allison Nathan
Hosted by Goldman Sachs between May 3 and May 16, 2022, this discussion analyzes the 30% year-to-date decline in Bitcoin and the TerraUSD collapse as catalysts that distinguished algorithmic risks from asset-backed stability within the evolving digital asset ecosystem. The speakers detail how institutional adoption is accelerating through volatility-focused strategies and regulatory frameworks like the US executive order, while blockchain innovations such as the European Investment Bank's tokenized debt issuance demonstrate T+1 settlement efficiency. Furthermore, the dialogue explores the future trajectory of synthetic CBDCs and retail versus wholesale Central Bank Digital Currencies across 87 countries, projecting a market normalization that balances high venture valuations against the structural benefits of on-chain transparency.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
Redefining the Retirement Landscape
Goldman Sachs Asset Management conducted its inaugural retirement survey of over 1,200 participants to contrast the financial hurdles and retirement timing of workers against those of retirees, revealing that health issues and job losses frequently force early departures for retirees while inflation and debt constrain current savings. The data highlights significant demographic disparities, noting that women often retire earlier than planned and feel less secure in their savings than men, whereas younger generations display optimistic yet unrealistic expectations regarding income replacement and retirement ages. In response to these findings and a shifting employment landscape, employers are increasingly transitioning from standalone 401(k) plans to comprehensive retirement programs that integrate financial wellness tools, student loan assistance, and lifetime income vehicles to address systemic gaps and retain talent.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Inflation: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Allison Nathan, Mohamed El-Erian, Jan Hatzius
Prominent economists Mohamed El-Erian and Jan Hatzius debate whether the current U.S. inflation surge is a transient phenomenon driven by commodity spikes or a persistent structural deficit caused by labor force changes and supply chain rewiring. While Hatzius anticipates inflation will normalize to a 2% to 2.5% range following a mid-June taper, El-Erian warns that the Federal Reserve risks a Type 2 error by underreacting to secular trends, potentially forcing a sharper policy correction later. The dialogue further highlights diverging views on labor market tightness and market valuations, with El-Erian cautioning that distorted liquidity has created a "rational bubble" that could collapse if inflation expectations de-anchor.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
An Evolution in the Cybersecurity Landscape
Matthew Chung, Wesley Williams, Andy Boura, Allison Nathan, Matt Chung, Wes Williams
Ten years ago defined by competitive secrecy, the financial sector now mandates public-private collaboration through bodies like the FSISAC to combat a 95% phishing breach rate exacerbated by remote work. Security operations have evolved into virtual fusion centers integrating legal and engineering teams that rely on automation to manage daily threats while addressing third-party risks highlighted by recent major incidents. Future strategies anticipate leveraging AI for defense and enhanced legislation, shifting the industry from reactive measures to proactive, layered resilience against increasingly commoditized cyber threats.