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  1. The Economist9 min

    Why America is stepping away from the institutions it built | The Economist

    John, Ed, Charlotte

    U.S. foreign policy is undergoing a structural shift from values-based engagement to a transactional approach, driven by a bipartisan consensus that the post-World War II order has failed to deliver sufficient economic returns or strategic advantages. Former President Trump's 2015 platform catalyzed this pivot by framing the abandonment of multilateral institutions as a correction to decades of free-riding, leading to increased reliance on tariffs and coercive trade rather than traditional alliances. Experts project three potential futures for this realignment: a renegotiated U.S. hegemony, a fragmented status quo, or a chaotic descent into systemic collapse triggered by unchecked military coercion.

  2. The Economist9 min

    Will China be the real winner from the Iran war? | The Economist

    Edward Carr, David Rennie, Adam Roberts, Zanny Minton Beddoes, Ed

    Chinese strategic leadership now prioritizes establishing new economic chokeholds in pharmaceuticals and chemicals while explicitly exploiting Donald Trump's transactional nature to secure high-end chip access, fearing that his potential political decline would empower hawkish rivals like Marco Rubio. This approach is underpinned by a cynical calculation that the United States is losing global favorability and alliance cohesion, prompting Beijing to cautiously normalize relations with Southeast Asian partners and free-ride on the existing US-led security order. Despite acknowledging the need for systemic adaptation, China's strategy remains paralyzed by an internal contradiction, lacking a viable plan for a destabilized "law of the jungle" environment while simultaneously avoiding the risks required to lead a new global order.

  3. The Economist8 min

    Is Russia the real winner from the war in Iran? | The Economist

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Shashank, Greg, Ed

    A strategic assessment highlights Russia's improved economic resilience and reduced incentive for negotiations, while Gulf states face a binary choice between dealing with Iran or deepening US security ties at the cost of regional stability. The conflict simultaneously exposes critical US industrial limitations in interceptor stockpiles despite demonstrating superior technical execution, a dynamic that China interprets as evidence of American war fatigue. Consequently, these developments entrench Russia's position and accelerate Beijing's military modernization efforts focused on endurance and missile capabilities.

  4. The Economist9 min

    Is ICE a threat to American democracy?

    Charlotte, Ed, Steve

    President Trump's administration has aggressively expanded federal authority by deploying militarized agents to enforce immigration policies, culminating in the fatal shooting of an unarmed nurse and the establishment of unchecked executive control over enforcement actions. While a recent poll shows 92% of respondents view ICE as a threat to democracy, discussion leaders emphasize that only legal accountability for lethal officers, rather than public outrage or "supine" congressional action, can effectively halt this erosion of democratic norms. As the administration continues to pursue political retribution beyond statutory mandates, the critical challenge for the coming year remains whether institutions and civil society will force a confrontation to prevent the normalization of these unchecked executive powers.

  5. The Economist10 min

    Is China the new superpower?

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Edward Carr, Ant, David, Ed, Alice

    The analysis examines the People's Liberation Army's advanced regional military capabilities and manufacturing dominance while highlighting severe internal economic stagnation, including three years of deflation and rising youth unemployment. Although China lacks the global projection power of the United States, its strategic focus on national security and superior hypersonic technology positions it to dominate the Indo-Pacific region. Experts conclude that while Beijing will achieve significant geopolitical strength, its long-term stability faces challenges from domestic discontent and an overreliance on foreign markets that it cannot fully control.

  6. The Economist10 min

    Were we wrong about Trump's tariffs?

    Zanny Minton Beddoes, Edward Carr, Henry, John, Ed

    Recent trade policies have established the highest tariff levels in ninety years, creating a significant gap between announced rates and effective collection due to supply chain shifts and business cost absorption. While the U.S. economy experienced its weakest half-year growth since 2012 with rising inflation, political dynamics are shifting toward protectionism across both parties despite bipartisan opposition from key figures like Mitch McConnell. Experts warn that arbitrary policy implementation and entrenched lobbying interests will likely create long-term structural damage and market isolation, even if an immediate recession is avoided.

  7. The Economist9 min

    War in Ukraine: the emerging global food crisis

    Arkady, Ed, Shashank, Sasha Nauta

    The ongoing war in Ukraine is precipitating a global food crisis by blocking critical export routes through Odessa, destroying domestic harvests, and disrupting fertilizer supplies, which threatens hundreds of millions in nations like Egypt and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Simultaneously, the prospective NATO accession of Sweden and Finland is expected to significantly strengthen Baltic security through Finland's substantial artillery capabilities, despite President Vladimir Putin leveraging the expansion to fuel narratives of Russian encirclement. This geopolitical shift occurs against the backdrop of US legislative uncertainty regarding escalating aid packages and potential changes in Washington's strategic posture ahead of the 2024 presidential election, raising concerns among European allies about future burden-sharing.

  8. The Economist11 min

    War in Ukraine: is a peace deal possible?

    Ed, Sally, Zany, Arkady

    Ongoing negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow remain stalled over the core triad of territorial status, sanctions sequencing, and Crimea's strategic corridor, as Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov lacks final authority to offer concessions without President Vladimir Putin's direct approval. While Ukraine has hardened its stance by rejecting pre-1991 borders and exploring security guarantees akin to Finnish neutrality, Putin's strategy is increasingly driven by domestic consolidation rather than genuine security needs, reflecting a calculated worldview that prioritizes legacy over realistic military outcomes. This strategic deadlock, compounded by Putin's internal miscalculation and the reluctance of his kleptocratic inner circle to risk nuclear escalation, leaves both sides facing a stalemate with no substantive progress toward a comprehensive peace deal.