Megan Swiber
Showing 1–2 of 2 transcripts.
- Bank of America28 min
Post NFP Takeaways: Econ, Rates, FX
Mark Cabana, Megan Swiber, Alex Cohen
The September employment report revealed a 46,000 rise in private jobs and a 4.2% unemployment rate alongside sharp deceleration in wage growth, leading market strategists to characterize the labor market as stable but non-inflationary. Despite softer headline data, the Federal Reserve team maintains its October rate hike outlook, warning that failure to tighten now could compromise inflation credibility or necessitate more aggressive measures later. Consequently, bond markets initially rallied before reversing on the expectation of a slower hiking cadence, while the dollar softened modestly against G10 currencies ahead of the pivotal September 14th CPI release.
- Bank of America27 min
MOU-nting inflation concerns
Mark Cabana, Svia Salim, Stephen Junot, Megan Swiber
Bank of America Global Rate Strategy analysts project three additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, driven by sticky core inflation and geopolitical tensions that have pushed European yields to post-2008 highs amid robust demand from life insurers. While BofA forecasts a temporary inflationary spike from World Cup-related spending in June, the bank anticipates the ECB and BOE will remain responsive to oil-driven risks with the Fed shifting from a cutting bias to a hold or hike stance. Consequently, the firm advises clients to maintain an underweight position across the yield curve, particularly at the front end, to mitigate the potential for further rate increases in the coming months.