Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 20 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Private Markets at an Inflection Point
Pete Lyon, Michael Brandmeyer, Alison Nathan
Driven by a structural shift in private markets where holding periods have elongated and distributions remain below historical averages, industry leaders anticipate normalization by 2026 as liquidity channels diversify and Fed rate hikes subside. While public market rallies have temporarily compressed private equity alpha, the asset class maintains resilience against equity volatility and serves as the primary hub for innovation, supported by a secondary market projected to double in size. Goldman Sachs predicts that sustained earnings growth and easing debt conditions will eventually trigger a gradual increase in IPO and M&A activity, potentially surpassing 2021 deal volumes within three years if geopolitical stability is restored.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
The AI Investment Boom: When Will It Pay Off?
Jim Covello, Alison Nathan, George Lee
In a Goldman Sachs Exchanges episode recorded on May 26, 2026, Jim Cabello and George Lee analyze the divergence between surging AI technology and unproven economic returns. Cabello admits previous misjudgments regarding consumer adoption and hyperscaler spending patterns while warning that the current exclusive profitability of semiconductor firms creates an unsustainable market dynamic. The dialogue concludes that without evidence of enterprise-scale profitability within the next two years, the industry faces a potential correction where hyperscaler stocks are poised to outperform if capital expenditure moderates or profit distribution shifts upstream.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
AI Exchanges: Power Problems?
Brian Singer, Alison Nathan, George Lee
Goldman Sachs projects a 220% surge in global data center power demand by 2030 as hyperscalers commit over $300 billion to infrastructure, a trajectory comparable to adding the world's sixth-largest power consumer to the grid. This aggressive expansion faces severe bottlenecks in skilled labor and transmission supply, forcing a near-term reliance on natural gas simple-cycle generators while industry leaders navigate regulatory hurdles and "agentic" AI traffic growth. Despite the high capital intensity and a potential $40 per megawatt-hour premium for green energy, major technology firms maintain robust balance sheets to fund these transition costs while seeking to decouple their power expenses from consumer utility rates.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on AI, M&A, and Markets
Goldman Sachs analysts project the 2026 global economy will benefit from stimulative fiscal and monetary policies that favor the U.S. structural growth advantage over Europe and China, despite lingering geopolitical risks. The firm anticipates a historic surge in M&A and IPO activity driven by a permissive regulatory environment and shifting CEO sentiment toward dealmaking. Internally, the organization is leveraging its "OneGS 3.0" AI strategy to restructure legacy processes, aiming to boost efficiency and productivity without reducing headcount while focusing future growth on asset and wealth management.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
The case for private credit
James Reynolds, Lotfi Karoui, Alison Nathan
With private credit assets expanding to $2.1 trillion, the sector has evolved into a dominant financing alternative for private equity and sub-investment-grade borrowers, driven by institutional investors seeking inflation hedges and floating-rate yields. Despite limited historical recession data, the industry demonstrates resilience through superior creditor coordination and regulatory leverage caps that mitigate systemic fragility compared to the pre-2008 banking system. Looking forward, senior direct lending and flexible capital solutions in Europe and the U.S. present primary growth areas as traditional bank underwriting retreats, while emerging distressed opportunities in cyclical sectors offer avenues for debt-to-equity restructuring.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
The recession question
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. economic forecast from optimistic to pessimistic, estimating a 45–50% recession probability as average tariff rates climb to 15–25%, which simultaneously drives inflation higher and suppresses growth. The firm projects the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in the near term if a soft landing occurs, though deeper cuts may follow if economic deterioration accelerates. These policy shifts coincide with a paradoxical market environment where Treasury yields and equity volatility rise, the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, and global growth forecasts turn negative across 21 of 25 covered economies.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Navigating the volatility in global bond markets
Jonathan Fine, George Cole, Alison Nathan, Jonny Fine
Following a global surge in bond yields driven by stronger-than-expected US growth and revised Federal Reserve policy expectations, investors are now pricing in heightened inflation risks and significant fiscal issuance from the incoming administration. Despite this volatility, corporate credit markets remain robust as earnings outpace borrowing costs, while central banks focus on preventing wage-driven second-round inflationary effects. Goldman Sachs' Jonny Fine projects a favorable bond outlook for 2025 based on underlying inflation moderation and the belief that current neutral rate concerns are overstated.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
Falling rates: A salve for real estate?
Lotfi Karoui, Jeff Fine, Alison Nathan
A Federal Reserve rate cut of 50 basis points has lowered funding costs and reduced Treasury yields, yet the commercial real estate sector faces a structural bifurcation where the office market struggles with obsolescence while logistics and retail demonstrate resilience. Regional banks have bolstered loss allowances to absorb expected credit costs, and the housing market remains supported by a supply-constrained "lock-in effect" despite modest improvements in affordability from lower mortgage rates. Investors anticipate a multi-year period of market dislocation and capital reallocation to address the valuation gap in obsolete inventory, driven by the durability of a soft landing and potential public-private urban redevelopment partnerships.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Can the US consumer stay strong?
David Mericle, Kate McShane, Bonnie Herzog, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Chief Economist David Miracle projects moderate U.S. consumption growth in 2024, attributing current resilience to strong household balance sheets while warning that unemployment risks could trigger a shift to job loss. Retail analysts Kate McShane and Bonnie Herzog observe a bifurcated consumer environment where spending prioritizes services and essentials while lower-income demographics defer discretionary purchases and trade down to private labels. Despite these pressures, the market faces further headwinds from a five-day shorter holiday shopping window, persistent price levels, and election uncertainty, leading management to adopt cautious strategies focused on revenue growth and value optimization.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
A skeptical look at AI investment
Daron Acemoglu, Jim Covello, Alison Nathan
While Goldman Sachs projects generative AI could boost U.S. GDP by 6.1% over a decade, MIT's Darren Acemoglu and Goldman's Jim Covello warn that high infrastructure costs and technical limitations may restrict automation to less than 5% of tasks. Driven by fear of missing out in a competitive "arms race," major technology firms are currently pouring capital into GPU-heavy infrastructure despite the absence of a cost-effective "killer application," sparking concerns that the sector mirrors the overbuild of the 2000 internet bubble. Analysts emphasize that the next 12 to 18 months serve as a critical inflection point where the emergence of tangible business use cases will determine whether this trillion-dollar investment cycle results in sustained productivity gains or a sharp correction in valuations.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Oil’s extended reign? Adapting to a new era in oil markets
Daan Struyven, Nikhil Bhandari, Alison Nathan, Dan Stroivin
Goldman Sachs projects global oil demand will peak around 2034 rather than 2024, driven by emerging market growth in India and China where jet fuel and petrochemical consumption continue to rise despite stagnating EV sales in developed economies. The bank forecasts Brent crude to trade between $75 and $90 per barrel through 2026, supported by OPEC spare capacity, before supply risks intensify in the latter half of the decade due to underinvestment in long-cycle projects and structural tightness in the refining sector. Political outcomes in the 2024 US election may further influence prices through potential sanctions on Iran or changes to EV incentives, with the firm recommending gold over oil as a primary hedge against policy-driven inflation.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Is the UK economy finally turning the corner?
Jari Stehn, Charlotte Keenan, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 0.6% UK GDP growth for the year, driven by falling headline inflation and a likely Bank of England rate cut in June that diverges from US Federal Reserve timing. Despite this recovery trajectory, the economy faces structural headwinds including a 5% output gap from Brexit, tight labor supply caused by shifting immigration patterns, and significant financing hurdles for the 99% of private enterprises that are small businesses. While political consensus on fiscal consolidation remains strong across both major parties, persistent wage growth and educational mismatches continue to constrain productivity and investment within the SME sector.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Why Treasury auctions — and rising deficits — are becoming a focal point for markets and investors
Jonny Fine, Alec Phillips, Alison Nathan
This analysis examines U.S. Treasury auction mechanics and market dynamics where rising issuance volumes have combined with Federal Reserve expectations to drive a "higher for longer" interest rate environment. While political discourse has largely sidelined the deficit despite projected long-term debt growth, record corporate refinancing and resilient consumer spending currently offset immediate concerns about fiscal sustainability. Ultimately, Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate intermittent market volatility from specific auction tails rather than a systemic correction, warning that a future recession remains the primary catalyst for deteriorating economic conditions.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Weighing the GLP-1 Market
Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford, Jonathan Gruber, Alison Nathan
Experts and economists convened to analyze the clinical efficacy of GLP-1 agonists for obesity, contrasting their maximum 22.5% weight reduction rates against the superior remission capabilities of bariatric surgery and the 20% non-response rate observed in diverse patient cohorts. The discussion highlighted systemic barriers where Medicare excludes obesity coverage while private plans vary, driving debates on pricing models and the potential $800 billion annual economic impact of widespread adoption. Ultimately, the dialogue proposed policy interventions such as government price adjudication and prize-based incentives to balance pharmaceutical innovation incentives with public affordability and workforce productivity gains.