Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 33 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs19 min
US Midyear Outlook: Geopolitical Shocks, the New Fed Era, and Growth
Recent U.S. economic data reveals unexpectedly resilient job growth and stickier inflation stabilizing near 3%, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and AI-related price measurement distortions. Goldman Sachs forecasts core PCE inflation to settle around 2.1% with real GDP growth of 2%, prompting expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates through July while shifting its policy stance toward neutralizing inflation regardless of its source. Despite market speculation regarding rate hikes, the primary economic risk remains a potential escalation of the Middle East conflict that could trigger sustained price increases and destabilize financial markets.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
How Falling Launch Costs and AI Are Driving the Space Economy
Michael Tarulli, Erik Sparks, Alison Nathan
Driven by a 95% cost reduction through rocket reusability, the global space economy has shifted from government dominance to an 80% commercial model currently valued at $625 billion. Key technological transitions to Low Earth Orbit constellations and AI integration are fueling growth toward a projected trillion-dollar market by 2040, though investors still prioritize order backlogs over profitability amidst high launch failure risks. While geopolitical tensions and collision cascade threats challenge sustainability, the sector is rapidly evolving toward autonomous manufacturing, commercial stations, and eventual off-world resource extraction as a universal utility by 2050.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Private Markets at an Inflection Point
Pete Lyon, Michael Brandmeyer, Alison Nathan
Driven by a structural shift in private markets where holding periods have elongated and distributions remain below historical averages, industry leaders anticipate normalization by 2026 as liquidity channels diversify and Fed rate hikes subside. While public market rallies have temporarily compressed private equity alpha, the asset class maintains resilience against equity volatility and serves as the primary hub for innovation, supported by a secondary market projected to double in size. Goldman Sachs predicts that sustained earnings growth and easing debt conditions will eventually trigger a gradual increase in IPO and M&A activity, potentially surpassing 2021 deal volumes within three years if geopolitical stability is restored.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
The AI Investment Boom: When Will It Pay Off?
Jim Covello, Alison Nathan, George Lee
In a Goldman Sachs Exchanges episode recorded on May 26, 2026, Jim Cabello and George Lee analyze the divergence between surging AI technology and unproven economic returns. Cabello admits previous misjudgments regarding consumer adoption and hyperscaler spending patterns while warning that the current exclusive profitability of semiconductor firms creates an unsustainable market dynamic. The dialogue concludes that without evidence of enterprise-scale profitability within the next two years, the industry faces a potential correction where hyperscaler stocks are poised to outperform if capital expenditure moderates or profit distribution shifts upstream.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Will AI Make Markets Less Efficient?
Osman Ali, Alison Nathan, George Lee
Goldman Sachs' Global Co-Head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, Osman Ali, discusses how his team leverages AI and machine learning to analyze market sentiment across 15,000 stocks daily, capturing the fact that over half of recent equity returns are now driven by themes rather than fundamentals. Ali explains that while advanced language models enhance market efficiency, their widespread adoption creates new alpha opportunities through crowding effects and predictable herd behavior, which the firm actively models to exploit. This strategy relies on a hybrid approach combining proprietary data, custom technology, and human experience to navigate a zero-sum game where increasing market complexity continuously generates fresh sources of value.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
AI Exchanges: Power Problems?
Brian Singer, Alison Nathan, George Lee
Goldman Sachs projects a 220% surge in global data center power demand by 2030 as hyperscalers commit over $300 billion to infrastructure, a trajectory comparable to adding the world's sixth-largest power consumer to the grid. This aggressive expansion faces severe bottlenecks in skilled labor and transmission supply, forcing a near-term reliance on natural gas simple-cycle generators while industry leaders navigate regulatory hurdles and "agentic" AI traffic growth. Despite the high capital intensity and a potential $40 per megawatt-hour premium for green energy, major technology firms maintain robust balance sheets to fund these transition costs while seeking to decouple their power expenses from consumer utility rates.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?
Sanam Vakil, Dennis Ross, Kevin Donegan, Alison Nathan
Entering its fourth week, the Iran conflict has evolved into a regime-survival struggle where Tehran seeks to spread costs widely while the U.S. military targets Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program. Strategic deadlock persists over the Strait of Hormuz, as limited convoy operations can only restore roughly 20% of normal oil flows despite rehearsed allied defenses. Panelists conclude that resolving this locked-in scenario requires a mediated outcome, though recent political assassinations and the need to rebuild Iran's collapsed economy complicate any immediate return to pre-conflict stability.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts observe that risky assets recently reversed gains following an Iran conflict-driven oil spike, shifting market expectations from rate cuts to an inflation shock that has strengthened the US dollar through favorable terms of trade. While traditional hedges have underperformed, the firm maintains a positive outlook for emerging market equities, projecting 10–12% upside driven by robust earnings and structural trends like the AI semiconductor supply chain rather than multiple expansion. This bullish stance assumes the energy crisis remains short-duration; however, a prolonged conflict threatening physical supply shortages could force a re-evaluation of growth estimates and trigger significant market damage.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
Oil Market Impacts from Iran
Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stroivind
A U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering a significant disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and causing Brent crude prices to surge 25% year-to-date. While Goldman Sachs forecasts a base case of no sustained supply interruptions with prices stabilizing by late 2026, the market currently prices in a risk premium for a potential one-month closure that could drive costs to triple digits. As global spare capacity remains trapped by the blockade and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels remain low, the situation presents immediate inflationary risks and elevated geopolitical tail risks for Gulf Cooperation Council infrastructure.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on AI, M&A, and Markets
Goldman Sachs analysts project the 2026 global economy will benefit from stimulative fiscal and monetary policies that favor the U.S. structural growth advantage over Europe and China, despite lingering geopolitical risks. The firm anticipates a historic surge in M&A and IPO activity driven by a permissive regulatory environment and shifting CEO sentiment toward dealmaking. Internally, the organization is leveraging its "OneGS 3.0" AI strategy to restructure legacy processes, aiming to boost efficiency and productivity without reducing headcount while focusing future growth on asset and wealth management.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population
Global median ages are rising rapidly across both developed and emerging economies as increased longevity and declining fertility rates drive a peak in the world population around 2075. This demographic shift presents a projected 15% decline in the working-age ratio for developed nations, though the immediate economic crisis is mitigated by a 12% extension in effective working lives since 2000. Consequently, markets are adapting not through a simple shift to elderly-specific goods, but via a prolonged lifecycle consumption model where society extends all life stages while boosting female labor participation.
- Goldman Sachs13 min
Stagflation and the Fed's next move
The U.S. economy confronts a stagflationary shock driven by spending cuts, restrictive immigration policies, and tariff uncertainty, creating a complex backdrop for Federal Reserve monetary strategy. Policymakers are advised to pause rate decisions at the May meeting to assess new trade data while maintaining a tough rhetorical stance to anchor inflation expectations without pre-committing to specific future cuts. As the Fed balances its dual mandate amidst potential political pressure, global investors are cautiously retaining dollar allocations despite signs of institutional skepticism and capital outflows that are currently characterized as temporary positioning rather than a permanent strategic shift.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
The case for private credit
James Reynolds, Lotfi Karoui, Alison Nathan
With private credit assets expanding to $2.1 trillion, the sector has evolved into a dominant financing alternative for private equity and sub-investment-grade borrowers, driven by institutional investors seeking inflation hedges and floating-rate yields. Despite limited historical recession data, the industry demonstrates resilience through superior creditor coordination and regulatory leverage caps that mitigate systemic fragility compared to the pre-2008 banking system. Looking forward, senior direct lending and flexible capital solutions in Europe and the U.S. present primary growth areas as traditional bank underwriting retreats, while emerging distressed opportunities in cyclical sectors offer avenues for debt-to-equity restructuring.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
The recession question
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. economic forecast from optimistic to pessimistic, estimating a 45–50% recession probability as average tariff rates climb to 15–25%, which simultaneously drives inflation higher and suppresses growth. The firm projects the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in the near term if a soft landing occurs, though deeper cuts may follow if economic deterioration accelerates. These policy shifts coincide with a paradoxical market environment where Treasury yields and equity volatility rise, the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, and global growth forecasts turn negative across 21 of 25 covered economies.