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  1. Goldman Sachs21 min

    Why Aren’t Investors More Worried?

    Dominic Wilson, Allison Nathan

    Despite a sharp market reversal triggered by news of a potential U.S. blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the S&P 500 has recovered toward pre-conflict levels as investors discount prolonged escalation risks in favor of a rapid negotiation timeline. Dominic Wilson highlights a critical divergence where equity markets price in economic tolerance while rates markets remain hawkish on inflation, prompting a strategic approach that combines selective long-risk exposure in technology and commodities with aggressive hedging against downside tail events. This cyclical strategy urges investors to capitalize on volatility-driven pullbacks by reinforcing core positions in favorable regions like Japan and Korea while maintaining protection against persistent energy supply disruptions.

  2. Goldman Sachs28 min

    The US-China Tech Race

    Mark Kennedy, Paul Triolo, Allison Nathan

    The US-China technological rivalry spans four strategic arenas, with Washington retaining dominance in fundamental innovation and China leading in application, infrastructure deployment, and self-sufficiency efforts. While US export controls have stalled China's access to advanced EUV lithography and high-end GPUs, these restrictions are simultaneously accelerating Beijing's parallel development of domestic chip manufacturing and open-source AI models. This dynamic creates a potential future where the US owns core design standards while China controls physical hardware and global markets, though US leadership ultimately hinges on resolving domestic energy grid constraints and sustaining its talent pipelines.

  3. Goldman Sachs26 min

    How Reliable is Economic Data?

    Erica Groshen, Arthur Laffer, Alberto Cavallo, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan

    Recent concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data stem from funding cuts, a 15–20% staffing reduction at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the dismissal of its Commissioner by President Trump. Goldman Sachs research indicates that these operational constraints and declining survey responsiveness are increasing standard errors in key indicators like the CPI and JOLTS, creating a risk of data divergence. While current safeguards and institutional checks may prevent a total collapse of credibility, analysts warn that prolonged political interference and resource depletion could eventually erode market trust to the extent seen in Argentina.

  4. Goldman Sachs29 min

    Power surge: AI, renewable energy, and the future of electricity

    Carly Davenport, Alberto Gandolfi, Brian Singer, Allison Nathan

    Global power demand is surging due to generative AI and data center expansion, with US growth forecast to accelerate to a 2.5% CAGR by 2030 while Europe faces similar pressure from electrification plans. Goldman Sachs predicts an "all-of-the-above" generation strategy dominated by natural gas and renewables to support an estimated $50 billion in new US infrastructure investment, even as nuclear adoption shifts toward direct power purchase agreements and small modular reactors. This transition faces significant bottlenecks including multi-year permitting delays, equipment shortages, and grid modernization needs, positioning the sector for a generational investment boom over the next decade.