Goldman Sachs
Showing 76–90 of 533 transcripts.
- 10 min
"The Market Is Fragile"
Goldman Sachs analysts describe a market characterized by conservative positioning and elevated volatility, where financial conditions have tightened significantly despite the S&P 500's resilience against multiple geopolitical and economic shocks. Investors are rotating from asset-light sectors facing AI valuation uncertainty toward asset-heavy industries such as semiconductors and defense, which have outperformed by 25% year-to-date as a defensive measure. While a prolonged energy disruption remains a primary risk for the European economy, the firm anticipates limited downside for US equities and highlights European financials as a favored investment theme.
- 15 min
Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts observe that risky assets recently reversed gains following an Iran conflict-driven oil spike, shifting market expectations from rate cuts to an inflation shock that has strengthened the US dollar through favorable terms of trade. While traditional hedges have underperformed, the firm maintains a positive outlook for emerging market equities, projecting 10–12% upside driven by robust earnings and structural trends like the AI semiconductor supply chain rather than multiple expansion. This bullish stance assumes the energy crisis remains short-duration; however, a prolonged conflict threatening physical supply shortages could force a re-evaluation of growth estimates and trigger significant market damage.
- 28 min
Europe’s Opportunity, AI, and Market Volatility with Goldman Sachs International's Co-CEOs
Anthony Gutman, Kunal Shah, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs navigates Middle East geopolitical instability while reinforcing its regional foothold through a new Riyadh wealth license and a $25 billion partnership with the Qatar Investment Authority. Strategically, the firm capitalizes on resilient Asian markets and European growth pockets in Spain and Poland, targeting infrastructure financing and private wealth expansion despite short-term currency volatility. Driven by robust corporate balance sheets and AI-fueled efficiency, leaders maintain a positive long-term economic outlook and anticipate continued M&A activity and capital market issuance as markets differentiate between structural trends and event-driven shocks.
- 10 min
Untangling Signals of Market Stress
Markets are navigating extreme volatility driven by unresolved geopolitical conflicts, evidenced by a VIX spike to 30, oil approaching $100 per barrel, and S&P 500 futures depth collapsing to $3.8 million from historical averages. Institutional investors are executing heavy macro hedges and shorting broad products while rotating capital into U.S. equities as a safe haven, despite record trading volumes and degraded liquidity quality. The near-term market trajectory hinges on consecutive negative jobs data potentially destabilizing retail sentiment, though a return to geopolitical clarity is expected to trigger a rapid unwinding of macro shorts and a rotation back into Asian and European assets.
- 15 min
Can Software Survive AI?
Gabriela Borges, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs and industry analysts report a market sentiment shift in the software sector, where investor concerns over AI-driven existential risks have triggered significant sell-offs by challenging the defensibility of incumbent technology moats. In response, major players like Salesforce and Microsoft are executing strategic replatforming, targeted M&A, and granular monetization tactics to validate that their integrated AI solutions outperform third-party alternatives. Despite slowed revenue growth rates, the sector is showing signs of stabilization as companies demonstrate improved free cash flow margins and attract value-oriented investors seeking GAAP profitability over unchecked stock-based compensation.
- 8 min
New Worries
Josh Schiffrin, Chris Hussey, Josh Shiprin
Goldman Sachs Chief Strategy Officer Josh Shiprin highlighted that geopolitical instability and surging oil prices have overshadowed recent payrolls data, creating a complex stagflationary environment that complicates the Federal Reserve's outlook. While maintaining confidence in an impending rate cut, Shiprin warned that the duration of the conflict could alter the timing of reductions and urged investors to adopt a long-term strategy focused on a steepening U.S. 2s10s yield curve amidst heightened market uncertainty.
- 13 min
$120 Oil Ahead?
Goldman Sachs' Jerome Dortmans warns that the Iran conflict has disrupted 20% of global oil and LNG output, creating unhedgeable supply shortages that could deplete strategic reserves within days. He forecasts prices will surge toward $100–$120 per barrel if the disruption persists beyond three days, with diesel and jet fuel facing the most severe immediate constraints. Dortmans cautions that market complacency is dangerous, predicting material inflationary impacts that will primarily affect major importers like China and India as geopolitical priorities shift away from Western refining systems.
- 31 min
Lloyd Blankfein on His Memoir, Risk Management and Leadership
Lloyd Blankfein, David Solomon
Former Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein details his tenure from 2006 to 2018, contrasting the firm's unique partnership culture with post-IPO public market pressures while outlining specific strategies that enabled survival during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. He attributes this resilience to rigorous mark-to-market accounting and a proactive risk-management focus on tail events, rather than predictive foresight, alongside a leadership philosophy centered on "managing down" to foster collective ownership. Blankfein's memoir, "Streetwise," further examines his journey from Brooklyn public housing to Wall Street, the firm's expansion into philanthropy through 10,000 Women, and the deliberate preservation of Goldman Sachs' distinctive internal culture amidst structural evolution.
- 14 min
Oil Market Impacts from Iran
Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stroivind
A U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering a significant disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and causing Brent crude prices to surge 25% year-to-date. While Goldman Sachs forecasts a base case of no sustained supply interruptions with prices stabilizing by late 2026, the market currently prices in a risk premium for a potential one-month closure that could drive costs to triple digits. As global spare capacity remains trapped by the blockade and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels remain low, the situation presents immediate inflationary risks and elevated geopolitical tail risks for Gulf Cooperation Council infrastructure.
- 23 min
Sentiment Shifts on AI Capex Spend
Tony Pasquariello, Joshua Schiffrin, Dominic Wilson, Josh
Global equity markets are diverging as overseas regions, particularly Japan and South Korea, surge to new highs while U.S. indices trade sideways amid intense skepticism regarding AI profitability and debt-fueled capital expenditure. This rally is driven by a structural expectation that artificial intelligence will ultimately induce disinflation, prompting investors to reallocate capital into non-U.S. assets even as the Federal Reserve holds rates steady through mid-year. Currency and bond markets are simultaneously adjusting to anticipated policy normalization, with a weakening U.S. dollar and steepening yield curves reflecting a consensus that growth in Asia will dominate the coming macro regime.
- 10 min
A New Way to Trade Emerging Markets
Stratford Dennis, Chris Hussey
Global emerging market equities have surged 15% year-to-date on $45 billion in inflows, driven by strong earnings fundamentals and a weaker US dollar that specifically benefits non-China regions like Korea and Brazil. While broad markets rally, China lags due to a lack of earnings growth and tariff headwinds, prompting investors to shift capital toward Latin American assets and structural plays like call spreads to manage valuation risks. Goldman Sachs maintains a bullish stance on this "EM ex-China" exposure, citing anticipated Brazilian interest rate cuts and election cycles as key catalysts for continued, albeit slower, appreciation.
- 32 min
Board Governance in 2026: AI Oversight, Activism, and Delaware’s Edge
Larry Cunningham, John F.W. Rogers
The University of Delaware's John L. Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance marked its 25th anniversary by unveiling the book *Boardroom Legacy*, which contextualizes John L. Weinberg's 1948 thesis on board stewardship through contributions from fifteen scholars and support from Goldman Sachs. Symposium speakers highlighted Weinberg's prescient advocacy for independent audit committees and CEO oversight while discussing modern governance challenges, including SEC Chair Paul Atkins' intent to reform shareholder proposal processes and the persistent market dominance of Delaware's legal infrastructure. Additionally, the event explored Warren Buffett's enduring influence on corporate succession planning and capital allocation strategies, cementing the center's role as a hub for bridging historical governance principles with contemporary regulatory and strategic realities.
- 20 min
Why Japanese Stocks Could Keep Rallying
Driven by Prime Minister Senei Takeuchi's snap election victory, Japanese equities have surged 14% year-to-date in 2026, outperforming US benchmarks and triggering a Goldman Sachs price target increase based on anticipated political stability. This supermajority is expected to facilitate long-term policy continuity, attracting foreign capital as investors anticipate concrete corporate governance reforms and accelerated ROE growth to sustain the current market cycle. While risks such as leadership transitions or policy missteps remain, the landslide win signals a transition into a "delivery phase" where structural economic security and defense clarity ahead of the March 19 summit will likely drive further valuation expansion.
- 8 min
Tech Comeback Ahead?
Peter Callahan, Mike Washington
In 2026, the technology sector is experiencing a 3% to 4% year-to-date decline and lagging the broader market for the first time in 15 years as investor focus shifts from generative AI infrastructure builds to commercial implementation and revenue verification. Despite "best-in-class" earnings growth across the Mag Seven cohort, equity valuations remain suppressed because companies face intense pressure to convert massive capital expenditures into immediate top-line growth within the next 6 to 24 months. Analysts maintain a constructive outlook on clean tech valuations but anticipate high volatility in the coming weeks as the market transitions from sector-wide moves to stock-specific differentiation.
- 16 min
The New AI Trades
In early 2026, software stocks suffered a 25% valuation collapse as forward earnings multiples compressed, while investors grappled with AI-driven disruption risks across sectors like legal and media. Simultaneously, five U.S. hyperscalers are projected to spend $660 billion on capital expenditures this year, a surge consuming 90% of their operating cash flows that has forced reduced buybacks and increased debt reliance. Amidst these headwinds, Goldman Sachs forecasts an S&P 500 recovery driven primarily by 12% fourth-quarter earnings growth and a market rotation toward cyclical sectors rather than AI-centric leaders.