The Economist

The World Ahead 2023: five stories to watch out for

Tom Standage, John Lubecki, Silvia Wardrobes, Inotye Ogbebo

India surpassed China to become the world's most populous nation in April 2023, presenting a potential demographic dividend that relies on resolving structural issues like low female labor participation and inadequate worker training. Simultaneously, the global medical and financial sectors face significant shifts as three psychedelic drugs advance toward regulatory approval for mental health conditions while the Bank of Japan's unconventional monetary policy creates risks for worldwide market stability. Major developments in 2023 also include the fashion industry's pivot toward circular economy practices to reduce textile waste and a surge in international efforts to repatriate colonial artifacts, such as the Benin bronzes and the Koh-i-Noor diamond.

Ukraine war: what will winter bring?

Volodymyr Zelensky, General Valery Zaluzhny

During his historic first visit to the United States since the war began, President Zelenskyy, alongside General Zaluzhny and Commander Sirsky, reaffirmed Ukraine's absolute refusal to freeze front lines or compromise on its 1991 borders. Despite severe infrastructure damage leaving 50% of the power grid offline, Ukrainian leadership warns that Russia is rebuilding 200,000 troops behind the Urals for a potential major offensive targeting Kyiv, Odessa, and the Donbas region by March. With public support for total liberation at 96%, the conflict is projected to enter a prolonged, World War II-style phase of intense artillery warfare that will likely extend for months or years.

Are brain implants the future of computing?

Tom Standage

Finnish startup Vario recently showcased a photorealistic VR headset leveraging advanced eye-tracking to match human visual resolution, while parallel advancements in brain-computer interfaces demonstrated capabilities ranging from non-invasive AttentiveView glasses for astronaut monitoring to invasive Neuralink implants enabling thought-controlled gameplay. Researchers highlighted the dual potential of these technologies to act as compensatory tools for neurodegenerative conditions like ALS and as transformative instruments for bridging the gap between biological neural networks and digital environments. Despite significant ethical concerns regarding surgical risks and incomplete neurological understanding, industry leaders and scientists maintain that direct brain interfacing is an inevitable trajectory toward dissolving the boundary between physical and virtual reality.

Why the counterfeit business is booming

Tallulah, Tom Standage

With the global counterfeit sneaker market valued at over $100 billion, high-quality replicas from hubs like Putian have blurred lines with legitimate production, fueling a surge in online sales that now account for 56% of EU seizures. While platforms like eBay process millions of authenticated pairs and social media influencers drive demand through "one-to-one" quality claims, these illegal networks are increasingly tied to severe human rights abuses and organized crime. Experts warn that without addressing the root demand alongside supply-side enforcement, these counterfeit operations will continue to dilute brand value and evolve despite law enforcement tracking digital sales records.

The cost of health care: how to make it affordable

Tom Standage

Experts analyze how nations like Thailand and Rwanda established universal healthcare systems by leveraging public financing mechanisms such as taxes and community-based insurance to cover the vast majority of their populations. These case studies demonstrate that prioritizing primary care and strategic fund allocation allows lower-income countries to achieve outcomes comparable to wealthy nations while providing critical financial protection against catastrophic medical expenses. The presentation further argues that universal health coverage is essential for economic stability and pandemic resilience, transforming health services from a privilege of ability to pay into a foundational public good.

How will businesses use the metaverse?

Tom Standage

The metaverse has evolved from a sci-fi concept into a multi-billion dollar industry driven by corporate investments from entities like Meta and NVIDIA, while industrial leaders such as ILM and Lockheed Martin leverage virtual production and digital twin technologies to revolutionize film, manufacturing, and military operations. Despite massive capital flows totaling over $120 billion in early 2022, the ecosystem faces a critical hurdle in establishing universal interoperability standards like Pixar's Universal Scene Description to connect disparate virtual worlds. As platforms like Roblox demonstrate the potential for decentralized economic creation, the technology continues to mature through advancements in real-time rendering and computing power, promising to reshape global interaction while replicating existing societal challenges.

Why is the World Cup important to Qatar?

Greg Karlstrom

Qatar became the host nation for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the most expensive tournament in history at an estimated $300 billion, utilizing massive infrastructure projects to establish its regional prestige despite facing a 2017–2021 blockade by neighboring Arab states. The event occurred alongside significant international scrutiny regarding human rights abuses and the deaths of over 6,500 migrant workers, raising critical questions about labor conditions and the treatment of LGBTQ+ fans. While the blockade ended in 2021 after Qatar achieved supply chain independence, observers warn that the tournament's legacy may be overshadowed by concerns over the sustainability of the "white elephant" infrastructure and unresolved geopolitical tensions.

G20: The Economist interviews Indonesia’s president

Zanny Minton Beddoes, Joko Widodo

President Joko Widodo leverages the G20 summit to advocate for dialogue over sanctions regarding the Ukraine conflict and US-China tensions, aiming to prevent escalation in the Indo-Pacific region. Concurrently, Indonesia is capitalizing on its strategic nickel dominance to negotiate a Tesla manufacturing partnership that will advance its domestic electric vehicle ecosystem. As he approaches his 2024 departure, Widodo is implementing a meritocratic shift to transition the nation from developing to developed status before returning to environmental conservation in Solo.

Who should pay for a warming planet?

Saúl, Yasser Mozby, Catherine Braille

Accelerating climate disasters and stalled political action have driven a surge in climate litigation, with cases tripling from 83 in 2011 to 227 in 2021 to hold entities like German utility RWE liable for global emissions and compel government action. High-profile precedents include the September 2022 UN Human Rights Committee ruling against Australia for violating the rights of Torres Strait Islanders and Peruvian farmer Saúl Luciano Lliuya's suit seeking compensation for flood defenses. Despite legal hurdles regarding jurisdiction and causation in jurisdictions like the US, these lawsuits increasingly serve as strategic tools for Indigenous communities and vulnerable populations to pressure governments and corporations into accelerating adaptation and mitigation policies.

Iran protests: can they topple the regime?

A youth-led Iranian protest movement, driven by demonstrators as young as fifteen, has escalated to include acts like public headscarf burning and has endured longer than any previous unrest in the Islamic Republic's history. While the absence of a single leader has prevented the regime from decapitating the movement, analysts argue that establishing a unified coalition and coherent message remains critical for long-term success. The trajectory of the uprising now hinges on whether the loyal security apparatus will eventually defect, as external powers currently prioritize nuclear deals over strategic planning for a potential post-regime transition.

Why Belgium is now the cocaine capital of Europe

Tom Standage

The Port of Antwerp has become Europe's primary cocaine trafficking hub, handling 40% of EU seizures in 2020 as Balkan criminal groups exploit high-volume business models to bypass a 2% physical inspection rate. Despite recent major seizures and the arrest of high-ranking officials linked to widespread corruption, law enforcement intercepts only 10% of shipments while cartel profits and market prices remain stable due to the trade's high profit margins and adaptable logistics. Experts now warn that without resource expansion or a strategic shift toward decriminalization, Belgium faces the risk of becoming a "narco state" within a decade as criminal networks outmaneuver traditional interdiction efforts.

Climate change: can money stop deforestation?

Andrew Mitchell, Carlos Manuel Rodriguez, Tom Standage

Global deforestation continues to accelerate due to economic incentives that favor land clearance over conservation, as evidenced by the collapse of Costa Rica's forest coverage from 75% to 21% between 1940 and 1987. Costa Rica subsequently reversed this trend by implementing a Payments for Environmental Services (PES) scheme funded by fuel and water levies, which raised forest cover to over 50% while sustaining a 4.2% annual GDP growth. Despite these successes, the unregulated global carbon market and trillions in harmful agricultural subsidies remain major barriers, necessitating a fundamental economic shift that values standing forests higher than industrial profits to address the climate crisis.

Incels: how online extremism is changing

Andrew Tate, Tom Standage

Homeland Security and researchers highlight a critical surge in online extremist violence, noting that fluid digital ecosystems are accelerating the fusion of ideologies like misogyny and far-right radicalism. Despite this trend manifesting in numerous fatal attacks and a 59% rise in mass murder code words, law enforcement strategies remain struggling to adapt to these rapidly evolving subcultures. Experts urge a shift toward treating these acts as monitorable patterns and implementing large-scale digital interventions, such as Moonshot's redirect methods, to counter the increasing threat before it escalates further.

How Trump is still damaging American politics

Trump, John Priddoe, Tudor Dixon

Following the 2020 election, Donald Trump's rejection of the results triggered political violence, widespread harassment of election officials, and a shift within the Republican Party where truth-tellers face expulsion while Trump allies actively recruit election deniers for state-level offices. Concurrently, 52 voting restriction laws enacted in 2021 and 2022 have narrowed access to voting under unsubstantiated fraud claims, creating systemic vulnerabilities for the 2024 presidential election. Experts warn that these combined forces of anti-democratic rhetoric, legislative interference, and a polarized party apparatus pose an existential threat to the certification of future elections and the stability of the American federal system.

Brazil elections: the enduring threat of Bolsonaro

Bolsonaro, Sarah Maslin

Jair Bolsonaro defied pre-election expectations in Brazil by securing a decisive lead in the presidential race, driven by a mobilized base of evangelical Christians, gun owners, and agribusiness farmers. His administration has significantly relaxed environmental and gun control regulations, consolidating legislative power through a coalition that holds half the lower house while systematically delegitimizing judicial and media institutions. Future stability remains precarious as analysts warn that a potential loss of the election could trigger political violence among armed supporters, mirroring tactics previously seen in the United States.