Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 27 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
How AI Debt Is Reshaping Credit Markets
Amanda Lynam, Zach Ablon, Allison Nathan
Global credit markets have shifted as AI-driven debt issuance from hyperscalers and the broader ecosystem now dominates supply, reaching nearly $500 billion year-to-date in 2026 alone. This unprecedented concentration is reshaping the Investment Grade landscape by skewing duration weight toward tech giants like Amazon and Google, while simultaneously testing market absorption limits and driving spread widening among insurance investors. As traditional US IG capacity approaches a $510 billion ceiling, the financing void is forcing a structural pivot toward private capital, non-USD jurisdictions, and alternative vehicles like project finance to sustain the multi-trillion-dollar AI investment cycle.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
The AI Investment Boom: When Will It Pay Off?
Jim Covello, Alison Nathan, George Lee
In a Goldman Sachs Exchanges episode recorded on May 26, 2026, Jim Cabello and George Lee analyze the divergence between surging AI technology and unproven economic returns. Cabello admits previous misjudgments regarding consumer adoption and hyperscaler spending patterns while warning that the current exclusive profitability of semiconductor firms creates an unsustainable market dynamic. The dialogue concludes that without evidence of enterprise-scale profitability within the next two years, the industry faces a potential correction where hyperscaler stocks are poised to outperform if capital expenditure moderates or profit distribution shifts upstream.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Cracks in Private Credit
Howard Marks, Michael Arougheti, Amanda Lynam, Allison Nathan, Michael Arrighetti
After expanding to nearly $2 trillion in assets, the private credit market faces liquidity scrutiny driven by redemption requests against non-traded BDCs, though institutional capital remains insulated by lock-up structures. While exposure to software and AI sectors has raised concerns about potential defaults, experts like Howard Marks argue that senior lenders' first-lien positions and diversified portfolios remain resilient against systemic failure. Looking ahead, industry leaders predict a necessary credit cycle correction that will reallocate capital toward direct lending and opportunistic credit strategies, ultimately fostering a more circumspect investment environment.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Apollo's Jim Zelter on the Future of Private Credit
Apollo Global Management, led by Jim Zelter, is strategically expanding its $970 billion asset base to finance a projected $5 trillion to $6 trillion capital expenditure surge driven by AI infrastructure and industrial reshoring. By leveraging its integrated insurance subsidiary Athene and $150 billion in recent investment-grade capital, the firm aims to dominate the $40 trillion private credit market with a focus on large-scale projects like the Intel semiconductor venture and Japanese corporate carve-outs. This approach seeks to capitalize on the shift from non-investment grade lending to massive investment-grade financing needs while maintaining disciplined risk management that prioritizes fundamental value over market noise.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Shutdown’s Economic Impact
A partisan role reversal has precipitated a broad federal government shutdown as Democrats withhold support for clean spending bills to demand the extension of ACA health insurance subsidies, a move that polling suggests is driving voter blame toward Republicans. The crisis faces a critical resolution pressure point on October 15 when active-duty military personnel miss a pay cycle, a deadline that historically compels congressional action to avoid widespread economic disruption. While the shutdown projects to reduce Q4 GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points and delay key economic data releases, market analysts and the Federal Reserve anticipate the stalemate will resolve quickly through a targeted fiscal compromise.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
AI Exchanges: AI’s Impact on Employment
Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan, George Lee
While current U.S. corporate AI adoption hovers at 9% with higher penetration in large firms, the technology is already reshaping the labor market by increasing specialized engineering job postings by up to 50% while disproportionately displacing recent college graduates and junior roles. Although long-term forecasts suggest minimal structural unemployment due to historical technology-driven growth, rapid adoption within one to three years could trigger a 2% to 2.5% unemployment spike, whereas a gradual ten-year transition would keep impacts manageable. Strategic resilience depends on the sector's reliance on high-stakes decision-making or human interaction, yet the shift forces a fundamental challenge to traditional apprenticeship models and introduces hybrid workforce structures where managers oversee both humans and autonomous agents.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
AI Exchanges: Where Will the Power Come From?
Rebecca Kruger, Allison Nathan, George Lee
Hyperscalers and utilities are forging unprecedented partnerships to address the binding power constraint of AI infrastructure, as the sector's step-change demand outstrips the current grid's 40-year-old capacity and supply chain limitations. With nuclear and gas-fired assets facing severe construction bottlenecks and a critical mismatch between rapid data center deployment and decade-long power generation timelines, these entities are committing to billions in capital and ten-year contracts to ensure reliable baseload generation. This strategic realignment, supported by emergency permitting measures and advanced technologies like behind-the-meter generation, marks a decisive shift from two decades of flat energy growth to a new era of massive grid modernization and investment.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Is a US fiscal crisis ahead?
Kenneth Rogoff, Niall Ferguson, Allison Nathan, Ken Rogoff, Neil Ferguson
Economists Ken Rogoff and Niall Ferguson argue that the United States faces an unsustainable fiscal trajectory driven by rising global interest rates and a critical threshold where sovereign debt servicing costs have surpassed defense spending. They warn that without political reforms or productivity breakthroughs from artificial intelligence, the nation risks a rapid financial crisis involving inflation or a permanent erosion of the dollar's reserve currency status. This convergence of historical parallels and modern geopolitical fragmentation suggests the U.S. must navigate a difficult choice between austerity, higher inflation, or diminished global influence within the coming years.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
The case for private credit
James Reynolds, Lotfi Karoui, Alison Nathan
With private credit assets expanding to $2.1 trillion, the sector has evolved into a dominant financing alternative for private equity and sub-investment-grade borrowers, driven by institutional investors seeking inflation hedges and floating-rate yields. Despite limited historical recession data, the industry demonstrates resilience through superior creditor coordination and regulatory leverage caps that mitigate systemic fragility compared to the pre-2008 banking system. Looking forward, senior direct lending and flexible capital solutions in Europe and the U.S. present primary growth areas as traditional bank underwriting retreats, while emerging distressed opportunities in cyclical sectors offer avenues for debt-to-equity restructuring.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
AI Exchanges: CIO Marco Argenti on the future of AI in the workplace
Marco Argenti, George Lee, Allison Nathan
A Goldman Sachs-led panel analyzes the rapid acceleration of AI reasoning models against the persistent "value gap" created by legacy systems and the behavioral friction of retraining human workflows. While "de novo" enterprises advance faster due to agile structures, the firm is actively cultivating "mindful disruptors" and embedding specific cultural judgment into agents to manage risks like hallucinations and data exfiltration. The dialogue concludes that future success relies on a hybrid workforce where AI agents provide elastic capacity and mechanical execution, leaving high-level creativity and professional oversight to human leaders.
- Goldman Sachs45 min
The future of real estate investing: Pretium’s Don Mullen on the rapidly changing asset class
Founded by former Goldman Sachs executive Don Mullen in 2012, Pretium has evolved into the largest private owner-operator of single-family homes in the United States by capitalizing on a projected long-term shift from homeownership to renting. The firm leverages its status as a leading non-qualified mortgage lender and distressed asset manager to address systemic housing shortages while expanding its operations into international markets like the UK and Canada. By integrating asset ownership with active management across approximately 150,000 units, Pretium aims to bridge the gap between institutional capital and the needs of self-employed borrowers and families seeking single-family rentals.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
AI Exchanges: Will falling costs drive new opportunities?
Allison Nathan, George Lee, Kim Posnett
Host George Lee and guests analyze how DeepSeek's low-cost AI model challenges the economic viability of massive U.S. tech capital expenditures while triggering a shift in consensus from data scarcity to power availability as the primary industry constraint. Despite short-term market volatility, the panel highlights record CapEx commitments from hyperscalers and emerging enterprise adoption trends, including Goldman Sachs' internal AI tools and synthetic data markets, which collectively suggest a rapid transition toward autonomous AI agents and multi-gigawatt infrastructure needs. The discussion concludes with a bullish long-term outlook, predicting that declining computing costs will fuel new use cases and accelerate workforce productivity even as the sector navigates immediate supply chain bottlenecks.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
What Trump’s win means for markets and portfolios
Trump, Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Brian Garrett, Alison Nathan
Following Donald Trump's presidential victory, U.S. stocks, bond yields, and the dollar surged sharply as clients rapidly shifted from underweight to long positions in banks, technology, and energy sectors. Goldman Sachs analysts project a potential S&P 500 rally to 6,100 by mirroring 2016 post-election patterns, while noting that European equities and renewable energy stocks face immediate pressure from tariff fears and policy changes. Although the VIX dropped to historic lows due to suppressed hedging, the firm maintains an equity-overweight strategy with a neutral duration outlook, warning that sustained yield spikes or reflation frustration could eventually trigger market indigestion.
- Goldman Sachs42 min
How Clearlake Capital’s José E. Feliciano is finding value across private markets
José E. Feliciano, Michael Brandmeier
ClearLake Capital co-founders Jose Feliciano and Big Dog Ibali leverage an $80 billion asset base to execute distressed investments, restructuring, and sector-specific buyouts with a primary focus on technology and industrials. Their strategy targets a "15-year supply" of undervalued tech companies for transformation through their proprietary OPS operational framework, which integrates AI integration and business model pivots to drive recurring revenue and efficiency. Beyond financial returns, the firm actively deploys over $200 million to support underrepresented minority leaders and applies rigorous operational standards to unique assets like Chelsea FC to diversify revenue streams.