Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 22 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs24 min
How Family Businesses Should Plan for Generational Success
FX de Mallmann, Tucker York, Alison Nathan
While family-owned enterprises drive 70% of global economic output and dominate sectors from luxury goods to defense, only 10% successfully transition to a third generation due to poor succession planning. Key operational challenges include the tension between emotional family identity and the need for disciplined capital allocation, often necessitating the integration of professional non-family management as firms scale. To mitigate concentrated risk and resolve governance conflicts, successful transitions increasingly rely on formal exit mechanisms, external capital infusions, and a strategic shift from business management to long-term wealth stewardship.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
Are Investors Complacent?
Jan Hatzius, Dom Wilson, Alison Nathan, Dominic Wilson
The U.S. has raised effective tariff rates by nine percentage points, introducing new levies on China, Canada, and Mexico while delaying agricultural tariffs until late next year. This shift, combined with a fiscally expansionary "Big Beautiful Act," is projected to push core PCE inflation to the low threes and suppress 2025 GDP growth to between 1% and 1.5%. In response, financial markets anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September to mitigate these temporary price shocks, while the U.S. dollar continues a structural depreciation against a backdrop of resilient global trade.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Tariffs: What’s ahead and why it matters
Alec Phillips, Joseph Briggs, Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Starting February 1, 2025, the administration implemented a 10% tariff on Chinese imports and delayed measures against Canada and Mexico while accelerating steel and aluminum duties to 25% with no exemptions. This unprecedented two-week escalation compresses trade war dynamics into a single window, projecting a mid-single-digit rise in effective U.S. tariff rates that could slow American growth by 25 basis points and push core inflation to 2.6% by year-end. As global central banks diverge with the Federal Reserve adopting a slightly hawkish stance, investors are increasingly hedging against dollar strength while anticipating a pivotal April 1 report on structural tariff mechanisms.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
The missing link to retirement security
Michael Moran, Alison Nathan, Mike Moran
Economic pressures from inflation and rising debt now force many workers to delay retirement, while a divergence in market gains and fixed-income yields exacerbates savings inequality across income quintiles. In response, regulatory reforms like SECURE Act 2.0 and the expansion of Pooled Employer Plans are driving the adoption of automatic enrollment and age-triggered investment strategies to boost participation. Looking forward, the industry aims to democratize access through personalized digital planning, integrate alternative assets into defined contribution menus, and develop hybrid decumulation models that provide steady retirement income.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Why the French and UK elections matter for investors
Sharon Bell, George Cole, Alison Nathan
French equity and bond markets have surged into volatility following President Macron's snap election, driven by concerns over the nation's 110% debt-to-GDP ratio and the potential for fiscal slippage under a fractured coalition government. While credit spreads have widened to 2017 levels and the STOXX 600 underperformed the S&P 500 by 5%, the broader European response remains contained, suggesting investors currently view the crisis as a domestic issue rather than a Eurozone-wide threat. In contrast, UK markets have maintained stability ahead of the July 4th election due to clear polling leads for Labour and strict fiscal commitments, highlighting a sharp divergence in investor confidence between the two major economies.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
How AI, the energy transition, and the future of work are shaping impact investing
Brian Singer, Greg Shell, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs researchers Brian Singer and Greg Schell articulate a strategy for the $2 trillion sustainable investment market that rejects the premise of trading financial returns for societal impact. Their "concentric circles" approach targets private companies in healthcare, education, and financial inclusion, utilizing $50 million to $150 million buyout checks to drive decarbonization and social mobility. By evaluating success through dual financial and impact metrics, the firm positions impact investing as a commercial mechanism to unlock the estimated $7 trillion annual capital gap while delivering robust returns.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Shifting supply and demand dynamics buffer oil market
Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stryven
Brent crude currently trades near $80 per barrel with a modest geopolitical risk premium, supported by U.S. supply dominance and OPEC+ strategies to avoid extreme price spikes that could hinder Saudi Vision 2030. While global demand faces downside risks from China, growth in India and the United States keeps prices range-bound, with refined products and gasoline expected to hit summer peaks of $3.70 per gallon due to refining tightness. Simultaneously, the market anticipates a structural shift toward critical minerals like copper as EV penetration rises, while European natural gas markets face potential oversupply by 2026 and gold prices rise on expectations of lower U.S. interest rates.
- Goldman Sachs33 min
Asset allocation outlook: The case for greater portfolio diversification in 2024
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Research and Asset Management teams project a 2024 landscape defined by a strategic rotation out of underweight cash holdings toward a rebalanced 60-40 equity-bond mix to capitalize on normalizing inflation and renewed diversification benefits. While the U.S. economy is identified as late-cycle with a 30% recession probability, the firms recommend extending fixed income duration, utilizing equity put options for downside protection, and increasing exposure to private markets and real assets to navigate persistent structural inflation and AI-driven productivity divergence. This comprehensive strategy aims to achieve a soft landing by hedging against rising credit delinquencies and supply pressures while actively capturing alpha in a higher-rate environment where zero-interest rates are not expected to return.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Why the global economy and markets can continue to outperform in 2024
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs reports that the global economy outperformed 2023 forecasts, with the U.S. avoiding recession through post-pandemic normalization while equity markets mispriced resilience against aggressive rate hikes. Looking ahead to 2024, the firm projects modest global growth and declining inflation, predicting that risky assets like equities and commodities will outperform cash as central banks approach a peak in policy rates before gradual cuts begin in the second half of the year. Despite elevated long-term interest rates and geopolitical risks such as Middle East tensions, the investment strategy emphasizes a shift toward diversified portfolios to capitalize on AI-driven earnings and supply-side commodity pressures.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
The music industry’s turning point
Goldman Sachs projects the global music industry will exceed $150 billion by 2030, driven by a resilient 8–10% annual growth rate fueled by streaming expansion, vinyl resurgence, and rising demand in non-English markets. The report identifies critical structural shifts including planned subscription price increases, the emergence of "superfan" monetization strategies, and ongoing debates over AI integration and royalty reforms to address revenue concentration among the top 5% of artists. While live events have fully recovered from pandemic losses and independent artists gain ground, the sector faces a turning point where major labels must leverage multimedia licensing and global regional trends to sustain growth despite increasing content volume and commercialization barriers.
- Goldman Sachs30 min
Why the ‘great de-stocking’ in oil and commodities could pave the way for future gains
Goldman Sachs forecasts a market transition from a historic destocking phase to a substantial deficit by summer, projecting oil prices to reach $97 per barrel and gold to hit $2,050 by year-end. The firm attributes current low prices to the liquidation of 500 million barrels in physical and paper inventories while maintaining that resilient green infrastructure demand and OPEC+ supply constraints will drive a sharp price rebound if recession fears prove overpriced. Strategic analysis highlights copper as a long-term decarbonization play and suggests that commodity levels currently serve as an effective hedge against persistent inflation and elevated interest rates.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
How much higher can bond yields go?
Rick Rieder, Praveen Korapaty, Alison Nathan, Praveen Kaurapati
BlackRock's Rick Reeder and Goldman Sachs analysts project the Federal Reserve has peaked with rates likely to stay elevated to protect millions of jobs while inflation remains sticky. Global central banks are diverging as the Bank of Japan adjusts its yield curve control and the ECB hikes toward 4%, prompting investors to favor European assets and high-yielding short-duration cash over U.S. credit. This strategic shift aims to capture over 5% annualized returns on the front end of the yield curve while navigating a structurally higher neutral rate environment.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
As China reopens, what’s ahead for commodities in 2023?
Goldman Sachs economists project a 43% rally in commodities during 2023, driven by a convergence of China's economic rebound, persistent supply constraints, and a structural underinvestment cycle that mirrors the bullish conditions of 2007. Key demand drivers include a surge in Chinese oil and copper consumption alongside Europe's urgent need for energy capacity, while OPEC's pricing power remains elevated due to limited spare production outside the Gulf region. Consequently, the report positions the complex as a superior hedge against inflation and market volatility, with copper offering a steadier risk-adjusted return compared to the higher volatility expected in oil markets.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
What’s next for crypto regulations?
Jay Clayton, Timothy Massad, Marcel Kasumovich, Gary Gorton, Alison Nathan
Following the collapse of major industry players like FTX, former SEC Chair Jay Clayton and former CFTC Chair Timothy Massad advocate for immediate joint standards and a self-regulatory organization to address jurisdictional gaps while enforcing existing laws. This proposed framework aims to balance innovation with investor protection by establishing common rules for asset custody and fraud prevention, despite ongoing debate over whether the current regulatory environment suffers from a lack of clarity or inadequate federal oversight. While experts agree on the resilience of underlying blockchain technology, consensus is shifting toward the imminent introduction of stablecoin regulations and potential Central Bank Digital Currencies to mitigate systemic financial risks.