Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 24 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Bank of America18 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Rates and inflation
Ralf Preusser, Mark Capleton, Evelyn Herrmann, Stephen Juneau, Meghan Swiber, Evelyn Hammond, Stephen Juno, Peggy Zweiber
BIA Global Research forecasts Eurozone headline inflation to rise to 3.9% in September while projecting a moderate December rate hike by the ECB, contingent on energy prices remaining elevated. In the United States, the firm anticipates a methodological revision will lower the PCE rate, yet underlying inflation remains persistently 50 basis points above the Fed's target, sustaining a high probability for an October rate increase. To capitalize on these divergent outlooks, BIA advocates for a long position in forward-starting real-yield curve flatteners and long-dated 10-year to 20-year inflation swaps due to perceived market over-optimism regarding future inflation containment.
- Bank of America20 min
Global Rates & FX Views: The great central bank review
Ralf Preusser, Agne Stengeryte, Meghan Swiber, Tomonobu Yamashita, Daesh Simha, Agnes Tengaraita, Yamashita-san
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% amid political pressure from Prime Minister Takaichi's appointees, while simultaneously adjusting climate-related fund operations to facilitate balance sheet normalization. Global central bank strategies diverged as the Federal Reserve signaled rates remain non-restrictive pending market signals, whereas the Bank of England paused active gilt sales to stabilize the long end of the curve. These actions triggered distinct market reactions, including a steeper JGB curve twist, a significant USD/JPY sell-off driven by FX policy concerns, and a mixed but structurally positive medium-term outlook for the British pound.
- Bank of America29 min
Global Rates & FX Views: CPI, Fed, & buyback implications
Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Stephen Juneau, Meghan Swiber, Ralph Axel
Core CPI inflation surprised higher at 0.3% month-over-month, driven largely by volatile wireless and airfare costs that have pushed core PCE projections to 3.1%–3.2%. This data reinforces a market consensus that underlying inflation remains "stuck" above the 2% target, leading to an over 85% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Consequently, strategists anticipate a hawkish press conference from Chair Powell and a flattening yield curve as investors align expectations with a likely three-hike trajectory for the remainder of the year.
- Bank of America24 min
Global Rates & FX Views: NFP: what it means for US rates & USD
Sphia Salim, Shruti Mishra, Meghan Swiber, Alex Cohen, Zviya Salim
The August U.S. non-farm payrolls report revealed a resilient labor market with 60,000 net job additions and stabilized wage growth, driven by rebounds in leisure, government, and construction sectors that offset previous volatility. This data reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, particularly if August Core PCE inflation remains above 0.24%, leading to a repricing of monetary policy toward 50 basis points of increases by early 2025. Consequently, two-year Treasury yields rose 3 basis points as investors adjusted for hawkish Fed messaging, while the dollar initially appreciated before retreating on oil price declines and the market's anticipation of upcoming CPI figures.
- Bank of America29 min
Global Rates & FX Views: NFP & refunding review
Sphia Salim, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Meghan Swiber
The July U.S. labor report revealed a net loss of 23,000 nonfarm payrolls driven by seasonal education declines and reduced hospitality staffing, though private payrolls remained resilient near break-even levels. This data, characterized by falling wage growth and a surprising drop in the unemployment rate due to labor force exit, has shifted Federal Reserve policy expectations toward a dovish stance with diminished probability for September rate hikes. Concurrently, Treasury guidance maintained constant auction sizes while coordinated yen interventions utilized Federal Reserve swap facilities, effectively limiting direct selling pressure on the U.S. debt market.
- Bank of America21 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Central banks – the aftermath
Sphia Salim, Zviya Salim, Izumi Devalier, Agnieszka Ngerite, Bruno Brzezina
The Bank of Japan maintained a hawkish tone regarding inflation proximity while keeping the September rate hike on contingency, with strategists projecting a terminal rate of 1.75% by 2027 despite political headwinds. Meanwhile, the Bank of England split 6-3 to hold rates amidst balanced forward guidance, while the US Federal Reserve's lack of immediate action triggered a market reassessment that halved the probability of December hikes in favor of a potential September move. Across these major central banks, analysts note diverging paths where exchange rate sensitivity and QT impacts now play critical roles, all set against a backdrop of a potentially overvalued US 10-year yield and a US economy peaking in its reflationary phase.
- Bank of America8 min
Signals & Noise: July FOMC meeting: oil or nothing
At the July 27, 2026 FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh is positioned to reject traditional forward guidance, creating a scenario where Bank of America forecasts a potential surprise rate hike despite market pricing of only a 35–40% probability. This decision may be driven by persistent inflation misses and resilient economic data, potentially prompting dissent votes from regional presidents Logan and Hammock in favor of tighter policy. Such a move would establish a new historical precedent by repricing rates forward while paradoxically flattening the yield curve and pushing long-term Treasury yields lower due to anticipated economic headwinds.
- Bank of America21 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Hyperscalers, credit, & rates
Mark Cabana, Yuri Seliger, Meghan Swiber, Yuri Sigler
U.S. credit markets remain resilient despite a 30% year-over-year supply surge, though hyperscaler bonds have uniquely widened due to Amazon's weak 2.5x subscription and shifting issuance dynamics. While net bond supply remains neutralized by a Treasury bill shift, investment funds are extending duration in IG spreads even as the Federal Reserve faces a 35% probability of an unexpected July rate hike to combat inflation. Future market stability hinges on upcoming hyperscaler earnings and whether issuers maintain aggressive capital raising despite emerging signs of investor demand fatigue.
- Bank of America19 min
Global Rates & FX Views: Japan’s GPIF, Fed and ECB
Ralf Preusser, Sphia Salim, Meghan Swiber, Shusuke Yamada, Megan Zweiber, Sia Saleem
Speculation regarding Finance Minister Katayama's support for the GPIF to increase Japanese financial asset holdings has sparked market anticipation of a potential 5% reallocation from foreign to domestic bonds, which could inject roughly 21 trillion yen into the JGB market. This hypothetical shift is projected to exert significant pressure on European government bonds, particularly in France, Spain, and Italy, by triggering an estimated €37 billion in sales that could alter relative value dynamics. Concurrently, the event analysis suggests that while this reallocation presents a modest headwind for US Treasury demand, global central bank strategies remain focused on anticipated September rate hikes for the Fed and ECB before a projected cycle of meaningful cuts begins in 2027.
- Bank of America27 min
MOU-nting inflation concerns
Mark Cabana, Svia Salim, Stephen Junot, Megan Swiber
Bank of America Global Rate Strategy analysts project three additional Federal Reserve rate hikes this year, driven by sticky core inflation and geopolitical tensions that have pushed European yields to post-2008 highs amid robust demand from life insurers. While BofA forecasts a temporary inflationary spike from World Cup-related spending in June, the bank anticipates the ECB and BOE will remain responsive to oil-driven risks with the Fed shifting from a cutting bias to a hold or hike stance. Consequently, the firm advises clients to maintain an underweight position across the yield curve, particularly at the front end, to mitigate the potential for further rate increases in the coming months.
- Bank of America15 min
Post NFP Call
Ralf Preusser, Aditya Bhave, Mark Cabana, Alex Cohen
The July 2 Bureau of Labor Statistics report revealed non-farm payrolls missing consensus with significant downward revisions, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2% driven primarily by a decline in labor force participation rather than net job growth. This data reduced immediate expectations for a July Federal Reserve rate hike to 5 basis points and triggered a bull steepening in the yield curve, though strategists maintain that sticky inflation remains the primary catalyst for future monetary tightening. Amidst these shifts, the US economy continues to outperform G10 peers, supporting a Bank of America projection that the US dollar will strengthen through the summer despite a 0.5% post-report pullback driven by hedge fund repositioning.
- Bank of America27 min
Task force hawkish
Mark Cabana, Aditya Bave, Stephen, Alex Cohen
In a unanimous June vote marking the fourth Federal Reserve chair transition in nearly four decades, policymakers shortened their official statement to omit labor market goals and dissolved transparency norms regarding dissents while establishing five task forces to review internal frameworks. The updated economic projections revealed a sharp hawkish split with nine of eighteen participants forecasting rate hikes this year, driving a consensus that current monetary policy remains insufficient to curb elevated inflation despite supply shocks. This shift in tone and data interpretation triggered an immediate dollar appreciation and led market strategists to adjust positions toward front-end rates and flatteners in anticipation of policy-induced volatility.
- Bank of America36 min
Equities, Fed, BoJ, & you
Mark Cabana, Jill Carey Hall, Aditya Bhave, Oliver Levingston
Strategists from Bank of America Global Research analyzed mid-year market dynamics on June 12, highlighting a divergent outlook where bearish S&P 500 signals coexist with expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike and a Federal Reserve pause. Jill's equity strategy warned of a potential 4% correction driven by extended valuations and sector dispersion, while advising a rotation toward undervalued mid-caps to avoid the rate sensitivity facing small companies. Concurrently, Aditya and Oliver outlined global monetary policy shifts, forecasting that a hawkish drift in Fed expectations and a dovish Japanese stance could reshape asset allocation amidst rising inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
- Bank of America20 min
Payroll call
Sphia Salim, Zviya Salim, Aditya Abbas, Shruti Mishra, Alex Cohen, Mark Havana, Bruno Brasenia
The June 5th release of U.S. payroll data significantly surpassed consensus expectations with 120,000 private sector jobs added and upward revisions of 93,000, driven primarily by leisure, hospitality, and local government roles. This strength shifted risk distributions toward a hawkish stance for the Federal Reserve, yet strategists maintain that a June rate hike remains unlikely due to stable unemployment and wage growth, anticipating that Chair Jerome Powell will address inflation concerns at upcoming Senate testimony. Consequently, the dollar rallied against major currencies while two-year Treasury yields jumped over 10 basis points, though market pricing for pre-midterm rate increases may overestimate immediate policy action given lingering skepticism about Chair Powell's timeline.
- Bank of America25 min
GLP-1s are shrinking some appetites; broader use poses a prickly challenge
Peter Galbo, Jason Gerberry, TJ Thornton
As of May 2026, the U.S. GLP-1 market has reached 10 million treated patients and $28 billion in revenue while facing a deflationary pricing cycle driven by Medicare agreements and an upcoming surge of generic semaglutide competitors. This therapeutic expansion is displacing packaged food volume in snack and alcohol categories, forcing large-cap pharmaceutical firms to trade at depressed multiples as the market nears U.S. saturation and pivots toward international growth. Future value will increasingly depend on next-generation formulations targeting muscle preservation and adherence rates, with analysts forecasting a shift where international sales eventually comprise more than half of total category revenue.