Latest Interviews
Showing 46–60 of 101 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs22 min
America Powers On: Why US equities are still poised to outperform in 2024
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group projects U.S. equities to deliver approximately 6% returns in 2024, driven primarily by earnings growth amid potential valuation contraction despite a 14-year legacy of U.S. preeminence. The firm maintains a strategic overweight on U.S. stocks while issuing tactical recommendations for energy infrastructure and physical uranium, warning that geopolitical escalation in the Middle East poses the primary downside risk to this outlook.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Middle East risks
Edward P. Djerejian, Emile Hokayem, Alison Nathan
Former U.S. Ambassador Edward Jerijian and IIS Senior Fellow Emile Hokeyem analyze how the October 7th attacks successfully recentered the Palestinian cause while triggering a broader regional conflict involving Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Experts warn that although Hamas has achieved its goal of ending the marginalization of Palestine, Israel remains committed to its military destruction while facing significant risks of miscalculation due to Hezbollah's involvement and disruptions to global oil flows. The prevailing consensus identifies a two-state solution as the only viable long-term resolution, yet current Israeli political constraints and the absence of credible Palestinian leadership render such a framework impossible in the immediate future.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
What China’s struggling property sector means for the global economy and markets
Kenneth Ho, Hui Shan, Yi Wang, Alison Nathan, Ken Ho
With China's property sector accounting for 30% of national GDP, the market correction since 2021 has triggered a liquidity crisis affecting roughly 70% of top developers and suppressed GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points in 2023. Despite outstanding debt reaching $8.4 trillion, Goldman Sachs analysts and the People's Bank of China argue that systemic banking collapse remains unlikely due to lower household leverage and distinct structural differences from the 2008 U.S. subprime crisis. However, resolving the crisis requires a strategic pivot toward managing secondary market oversupply and restoring consumer confidence, as current easing measures have failed to address the fundamental mismatch between developer inventory and urban purchasing power.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Is US outperformance at a turning point?
Rebecca Patterson, Jean Boivin, Peter Oppenheimer, Alison Nathan
Bridgewater's Rebecca Patterson, BlackRock's Jean Boivin, and Goldman Sachs' Peter Oppenheimer debated the durability of U.S. equities, contrasting the bull case for AI-driven productivity against bearish concerns regarding aging demographics and geopolitical shifts. While Patterson advocates for maintaining a U.S. overweight based on structural technological advantages, Oppenheimer suggests narrowing profit differentials warrant regional diversification. Ultimately, the consensus highlights a transition from broad index outperformance to selective alpha generation, with Boivin recommending strategic caution in public equities in favor of government debt and thematic private credit opportunities.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Unlocking the AI M&A Supercycle
Jung Min, Matt Lucas, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs' latest analysis characterizes the current generative AI boom as a transformative, economy-wide shift driven by chat interfaces and algorithmic leaps, while noting that widespread enterprise adoption remains in a nascent phase. Investment capital is currently concentrated on infrastructure components like semiconductors and data centers, leading to a shift in public market valuations toward tangible results rather than speculation. Although acquisition activity is temporarily constrained by strategic uncertainty, future M&A waves and significant economic productivity gains are projected to emerge once regulatory frameworks stabilize and enterprise spending matures over the coming decade.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Commercial real estate risks
Scott Rechler, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, Alison Nathan, Sten van Nuremberg
Distinguished voices Scott Reckler and Sten van Nieuwerberg diverge on the severity of the commercial real estate crisis, with Reckler predicting a bifurcated market and slow stabilization by 2025 while van Nieuwerberg argues for a structural decline affecting even premium assets. Both experts warn that $2.6 trillion in maturing loans and restrictive lending standards will trigger a "train wreck in slow motion" forcing the conversion of obsolete office space, though physical constraints limit viable housing transitions to a small fraction of the stock. Consequently, regional banks face severe distress as asset values plummet 40–60%, potentially wiping out equity and precipitating a banking consolidation comparable to the 1980s S&L crisis or a mild recession driven by a credit crunch.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Corporate Credit Concerns
Boaz Weinstein, Lotfi Karoui, Alyssa Nathan, Latvi Karwi
Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist Latvi Karwi projects a benign credit outlook with default rates stabilizing near historical averages, while Saba Capital's Boaz Weinstein warns that tight spreads fail to price in significant macroeconomic uncertainty and rising bankruptcy risks. The discussion highlights a structural divergence where leveraged loan issuers face immediate floating-rate pressure despite investment-grade fundamentals, alongside a growing schism in default rates between public and private credit markets. Consequently, investment strategies are split between capitalizing on carry in fixed income versus rotating into U.S. Treasuries to hedge against the technical risks of rapid spread widening and potential valuation compression.
- Goldman Sachs41 min
Man Group CEO Luke Ellis on hedge funds, quantitative strategies and leadership
Man Group CEO Luke Ellis will retire in September 2023, handing leadership to President Robin Grew as the $150 billion quantitative asset manager completes a seven-year strategic pivot toward customized solutions for pension and sovereign clients. Ellis credits this growth and operational efficiency to a model count expansion from six to 700, enabling the firm to navigate the shift from the 2010s' low-interest environment to the 2020s' inflationary volatility while leveraging AI with rigorous human oversight. Looking ahead, Ellis identifies Japan and specific inflation-resistant strategies as prime opportunities, though he warns that a tight global supply of talent and potential regulatory changes to leverage pose significant hurdles for the broader hedge fund industry.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Why global equities are poised for “fat and flat” returns
Peter Oppenheimer, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects U.S. equity markets will enter a "fat and flat" phase characterized by modest growth and high valuations, as investors pivot from the TINA strategy to the TERRA framework where risk-free yields offer a viable alternative. While recent volatility has eased and profit growth remains minimal, the firm anticipates a shift from narrow tech-led gains to broader global opportunities in Europe and Asia as rate hikes near their peak. Consequently, the strategy recommends a diversified portfolio approach to navigate margin compression and capture alpha across regions rather than relying on concentrated U.S. outperformance.
- Goldman Sachs39 min
How countries and companies are reshaping their supply chains
Andrew Tilton, Luke Barrs, Richard Hill, Alison Nathan
Driven by pandemic disruptions and U.S.-China geopolitical tensions, a structural shift toward supply chain resilience is replacing pure cost efficiency with a "China plus one" diversification strategy among multinational corporations. Government policies, including the U.S. CHIPS Act and India's production-linked incentives, are actively accelerating capital investment in domestic manufacturing and critical minerals to secure economic sovereignty. While experts like Andrew Tilton and Luke Bars view this as an enduring trend of "slowing globalization" that benefits nations such as Vietnam and Mexico, critics warn that the inevitable loss of efficiency and lack of a specialized workforce may lead to higher consumer costs rather than full self-sufficiency.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
U.S.-China: more decoupling ahead?
Graham Allison, Dan Rosen, Alison Nathan
Graham Allison characterizes current U.S.-China relations as the worst in over fifty years, driven by a historical Thucydides Trap and diverging national identities, while Dan Rosen identifies systemic economic model divergence as a primary engine of decoupling. Despite intensifying geopolitical tensions and collapsing foreign direct investment flows outside of a handful of major corporations, Allison advocates for a "rivalry partnership" framework to manage competition on existential threats like climate change and nuclear stability. The outlook suggests that while Biden's upcoming investment curbs will serve primarily as notification regimes, a sustained reduction in engagement remains probable unless Beijing implements decisive market reforms to address its stagnating productivity.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Samarth Kulkarni, CEO, CRISPR Therapeutics
Samarth Kulkarni, Dr. Sam Kulkarni
Dr. Sam Kulkarni of CRISPR Therapeutics outlines a pivotal industry shift where the convergence of delivery systems and genome-editing technology enables a transition from chronic symptom management to one-time curative procedures for rare and common diseases. By leveraging a highly specific RNA passcode to mitigate off-target risks, the company is advancing both ex vivo and in vivo therapies, successfully treating blood disorders while expanding into metabolic conditions and sustainable agriculture. This strategic execution has allowed CRISPR Therapeutics to raise $3.5 billion and maintain an aggressive R&D focus despite a broader biotech market correction, positioning the firm to deliver the first wave of permanent genetic cures within the next decade.
- Goldman Sachs31 min
What’s ahead for economies and markets in 2023?
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects a 35% probability of a U.S. recession in 2023 despite a baseline forecast for positive growth driven by cooling inflation and a labor market correction via reduced job openings. The firm anticipates Federal Reserve funds rates peaking between 5% and 5.25% by May, followed by a pause and potential cuts in late 2024 as inflation targets 3%. While U.S. equity valuations remain constrained by tight labor and rich pricing, emerging markets and Europe offer deeper discounts supported by anticipated global growth recovery and a structurally weakening dollar.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Central bank tightening: what could break?
Allison Nathan, Jeremy Stein, Vítor Constâncio
Former Federal Reserve officials Jeremy Stein and Lyle Brainard, alongside ECB Vice President Vitor Constancio, assert that the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank must prioritize fighting inflation over preemptive financial stability measures while navigating Quantitative Tightening risks. These experts warn that structural fragilities, including sovereign bond liquidity shortages in the US and complex energy-driven inflation in Europe, could trigger market instability if central banks fail to adapt tools like standing repo facilities or manage open-end fund vulnerabilities. Despite acknowledging that tightening cycles are expected to peak at 5% for the Fed and 3% for the ECB, the panelists caution that the absence of 2020-era fiscal backstops may amplify the impact of future credit events.
- Goldman Sachs1h 21m
2022 Analyst Impact Fund
Asahi Pompei, Jim Kramer, Nikonj, Kee, Angela, Simon, Amber, Amy, Eduardo, Gabriella, Sandra, Eric, Anna Gipikoulos, Olivia, Lisa, Joseph, David Solomon
The seventh annual Goldman Sachs Analyst Impact Fund Finals brought four finalist teams from Singapore, Frankfurt, Copenhagen, and London to New York to pitch social impact projects before a panel including Jim Cramer. Team IntelliHealth secured the $250,000 first-place award for its telehealth platform, while Upwardly Global, Climate Science, and Witness received additional funding to scale their initiatives in workforce integration, climate education, and human rights verification. This in-person event marked a strategic shift for the competition, reinforcing Goldman Sachs' commitment to inclusive growth by deploying $550,000 in grants to support projects aligning with the firm's 2021 sustainability goals.