Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 45 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs26 min
Private Markets at an Inflection Point
Pete Lyon, Michael Brandmeyer, Alison Nathan
Driven by a structural shift in private markets where holding periods have elongated and distributions remain below historical averages, industry leaders anticipate normalization by 2026 as liquidity channels diversify and Fed rate hikes subside. While public market rallies have temporarily compressed private equity alpha, the asset class maintains resilience against equity volatility and serves as the primary hub for innovation, supported by a secondary market projected to double in size. Goldman Sachs predicts that sustained earnings growth and easing debt conditions will eventually trigger a gradual increase in IPO and M&A activity, potentially surpassing 2021 deal volumes within three years if geopolitical stability is restored.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
The AI Investment Boom: When Will It Pay Off?
Jim Covello, Alison Nathan, George Lee
In a Goldman Sachs Exchanges episode recorded on May 26, 2026, Jim Cabello and George Lee analyze the divergence between surging AI technology and unproven economic returns. Cabello admits previous misjudgments regarding consumer adoption and hyperscaler spending patterns while warning that the current exclusive profitability of semiconductor firms creates an unsustainable market dynamic. The dialogue concludes that without evidence of enterprise-scale profitability within the next two years, the industry faces a potential correction where hyperscaler stocks are poised to outperform if capital expenditure moderates or profit distribution shifts upstream.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Can the Asia Equity Rally Continue?
Following a neutral Trump-Xi summit that stabilized diplomatic expectations, Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded Chinese A-share earnings forecasts to 25% while highlighting a stark performance divergence between onshore equities and offshore stocks weighed down by major tech underperformance. The firm projects a sustained semiconductor supercycle driven by artificial intelligence demand, yet warns of near-term tactical overbought conditions in North Asian memory giants alongside concentrated market risks in Korea. Despite structural improvements in Japanese corporate governance and political stability fueling a 20% Nikkei surge, the discussion notes global valuations remain stretched and vulnerable to potential energy supply shocks or tech chain disruptions.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
AI Exchanges: Power Problems?
Brian Singer, Alison Nathan, George Lee
Goldman Sachs projects a 220% surge in global data center power demand by 2030 as hyperscalers commit over $300 billion to infrastructure, a trajectory comparable to adding the world's sixth-largest power consumer to the grid. This aggressive expansion faces severe bottlenecks in skilled labor and transmission supply, forcing a near-term reliance on natural gas simple-cycle generators while industry leaders navigate regulatory hurdles and "agentic" AI traffic growth. Despite the high capital intensity and a potential $40 per megawatt-hour premium for green energy, major technology firms maintain robust balance sheets to fund these transition costs while seeking to decouple their power expenses from consumer utility rates.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Will US Stocks Outperform in 2026?
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects global equities to outperform U.S. stocks in 2026, with emerging markets excluding China forecast to lead returns despite a negative outlook on Chinese assets due to a disconnect between official GDP figures and independent growth estimates. While identifying potential valuation risks and "bubble trouble" within the private AI sector, the firm advises against hedges like gold or Bitcoin in favor of U.S. Treasuries and broad S&P 500 exposure. The strategic recommendation centers on maintaining a diversified portfolio with a U.S. overweight, utilizing the index's rebalancing mechanism to capture long-term returns driven by margin expansion and AI efficiency.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on AI, M&A, and Markets
Goldman Sachs analysts project the 2026 global economy will benefit from stimulative fiscal and monetary policies that favor the U.S. structural growth advantage over Europe and China, despite lingering geopolitical risks. The firm anticipates a historic surge in M&A and IPO activity driven by a permissive regulatory environment and shifting CEO sentiment toward dealmaking. Internally, the organization is leveraging its "OneGS 3.0" AI strategy to restructure legacy processes, aiming to boost efficiency and productivity without reducing headcount while focusing future growth on asset and wealth management.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives
David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Shutdown’s Economic Impact
A partisan role reversal has precipitated a broad federal government shutdown as Democrats withhold support for clean spending bills to demand the extension of ACA health insurance subsidies, a move that polling suggests is driving voter blame toward Republicans. The crisis faces a critical resolution pressure point on October 15 when active-duty military personnel miss a pay cycle, a deadline that historically compels congressional action to avoid widespread economic disruption. While the shutdown projects to reduce Q4 GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points and delay key economic data releases, market analysts and the Federal Reserve anticipate the stalemate will resolve quickly through a targeted fiscal compromise.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
Are Investors Complacent?
Jan Hatzius, Dom Wilson, Alison Nathan, Dominic Wilson
The U.S. has raised effective tariff rates by nine percentage points, introducing new levies on China, Canada, and Mexico while delaying agricultural tariffs until late next year. This shift, combined with a fiscally expansionary "Big Beautiful Act," is projected to push core PCE inflation to the low threes and suppress 2025 GDP growth to between 1% and 1.5%. In response, financial markets anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September to mitigate these temporary price shocks, while the U.S. dollar continues a structural depreciation against a backdrop of resilient global trade.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Mid-year outlook: diversify and hedge
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs strategists Christian Mueller-Glissman and Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo analyze a complex macro environment where unprecedented volatility in equities, bonds, and the dollar has converged, yet the US economy remains on track for a non-recessionary cool-down. They recommend a shift from traditional diversification toward a "constellation" of alternatives and selective optimism, highlighting opportunities in defensive stocks, European banking, and private capital while warning of elevated summer risks from tariffs and geopolitical tensions. The consensus advice is to embrace growth trajectories while hedging against near-term liquidity thinning, anticipating a market recovery driven by policy clarity and positive fiscal dynamics extending into 2026.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Is Fed independence at risk?
Richard Clarida, John Cochrane, Alison Nathan
The Trump administration is actively pursuing legal challenges to overturn the *Humphrey's Executor* precedent, aiming to eliminate "for-cause" protections for Federal Reserve officials and subject them to direct presidential removal. While structural checks like the Federal Open Market Committee's voting system and Senate confirmation remain, this strategy threatens to destabilize financial markets by introducing uncertainty over the central bank's ability to maintain price stability. Experts warn that removing these independence safeguards could distort inflation expectations and encourage mission creep, as the Fed faces pressure to expand beyond its statutory mandate into areas like climate risk and housing policy.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
The case for private credit
James Reynolds, Lotfi Karoui, Alison Nathan
With private credit assets expanding to $2.1 trillion, the sector has evolved into a dominant financing alternative for private equity and sub-investment-grade borrowers, driven by institutional investors seeking inflation hedges and floating-rate yields. Despite limited historical recession data, the industry demonstrates resilience through superior creditor coordination and regulatory leverage caps that mitigate systemic fragility compared to the pre-2008 banking system. Looking forward, senior direct lending and flexible capital solutions in Europe and the U.S. present primary growth areas as traditional bank underwriting retreats, while emerging distressed opportunities in cyclical sectors offer avenues for debt-to-equity restructuring.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
The recession question
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs has revised its U.S. economic forecast from optimistic to pessimistic, estimating a 45–50% recession probability as average tariff rates climb to 15–25%, which simultaneously drives inflation higher and suppresses growth. The firm projects the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 basis points in the near term if a soft landing occurs, though deeper cuts may follow if economic deterioration accelerates. These policy shifts coincide with a paradoxical market environment where Treasury yields and equity volatility rise, the U.S. dollar weakens against major currencies, and global growth forecasts turn negative across 21 of 25 covered economies.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Macro questions and market strength
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzias and Dominic Wilson project that 2025 U.S. real GDP will grow by approximately 2.5% despite an effective tariff increase of 4–7 percentage points, a scenario where tailwinds continue to outweigh policy headwinds. While the Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates later in the year due to sticky but manageable inflation, markets remain resilient near record highs driven by strong consumer income growth and a pricing dynamic that favors offshore equities. The analysts warn that aggressive tariff implementation poses a significant tail risk for growth and bond yields, yet they maintain that the current low recession probability supports a gradual upward drift in risk assets.