Latest Interviews
Showing 1–15 of 15 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs20 min
What the Surge in IPOs Means for Investors
Jay Ritter, Owen Lamont, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs Research reports that the U.S. IPO market reached record issuance levels in 2026 while maintaining average valuations that distinguish current activity from historical speculative bubbles. Analyst Jay Ritter and Owen Lamont offer diverging perspectives on this surge, with Ritter arguing deep capital markets can absorb new supply without overvaluation, whereas Lamont warns that a massive wave of issuance signals the early stages of a potential bubble. Both experts agree that structural shifts, including expanded private markets and industry consolidation, have permanently reduced the average annual IPO count to roughly 100, fundamentally altering the relationship between new listings and future market returns.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
How Will AI Impact the Labor Market?
Daron Acemoglu, Neil Thompson, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan
Experts from Goldman Sachs and MIT project that while AI will displace tens of millions of U.S. workers over the next decade through significant labor reallocation, the unemployment rate is expected to rise by less than one percentage point annually as new job creation offsets automation. The consensus indicates a gradual transition driven by integration barriers rather than sudden mass layoffs, though disagreement persists regarding short-term net employment impacts depending on whether firms prioritize replacing or complementing human labor. Recorded in June 2026, these forecasts highlight that the trajectory of inequality and total job levels will ultimately depend on whether AI development focuses on automating routine cognitive tasks or augmenting high-value human expertise.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
‘Affordability’: Consumer Concerns and Government Proposals
David Mericle, Alec Phillips, Allison Nathan
Amidst a persistent housing affordability crisis driven by regulatory constraints and construction labor shortages, the administration has relied on reactive executive orders to utilize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac capacity rather than enacting comprehensive legislative reforms. While these measures aim to modestly lower mortgage rates through increased mortgage-backed security purchases and a ban on institutional single-family home purchases, they fail to address the root causes of supply scarcity or deliver immediate price relief for homeowners. Future policy focus is expected to shift toward zoning incentives and speculative tariff rebates, though significant progress remains hindered by the need for congressional approval and the long-term nature of structural housing deficits.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
After a Summer of Stablecoins, What’s Next?
Brian Brooks, Barry Eichengreen, Allison Nathan
The U.S. "Genius Act" establishes a comprehensive federal framework for stablecoins that mandates full backing by high-quality assets like U.S. Treasury bills while subjecting issuers to national bank-style supervision. Key figures Brian Brooks and Barry Eichengreen debate the legislation's efficacy, with Brooks advocating for private innovation and treasury demand growth while Eichengreen warns of systemic risks to the singleness of money and potential taxpayer liabilities. Despite these conflicting views on financial stability, the regulatory clarity is expected to dismantle existing market monopolies and accelerate mass adoption across savings, remittances, and commercial payment sectors.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Will Fed policy trigger a US recession?
Allison Nathan, Claudia Sahm, Bill Dudley, Rob Kaplan, Alyssa Nathan
Following the technical activation of the Sahm Rule in July 2024, leading economists are divided on the likelihood of an imminent U.S. recession, with estimates ranging from Goldman Sachs' 20% probability to Bill Dudley's 60% forecast based on conflicting interpretations of labor supply shifts and demand destruction. While Fed Chair Powell signals impending rate cuts, experts like Claudia Sahm and Dudley warn that monetary policy risks lagging behind structural economic shifts, potentially turning a soft landing into an unforced recession if the central bank fails to act decisively. The prevailing base case anticipates a mild downturn or no contraction if the Federal Reserve successfully lowers borrowing costs, though divergent views persist regarding whether current unemployment data reflects a genuine demand shock or a temporary labor force anomaly.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Breaking Free: The rise of corporate separations
David Dubner, Sharath Sharma, Allison Nathan
Driven by an elevated cost of capital and a strategic pivot toward simplification, over 30 global corporate separations were announced in 2022 as companies in sectors like pharmaceuticals and industrials seek to unlock portfolio discounts through operational focus. These transactions, typically closing within 9 to 13 months with internal leaders assuming over 80% of NewCo CEO roles, historically generate mid-single-digit outperformance against the S&P 500 within two years. By optimizing capital allocation and enabling targeted M&A, these divestitures serve as a critical mechanism for "shrinking to grow," allowing both RemainCos and NewCos to accelerate executive cycles and achieve value creation previously unattainable within diversified conglomerates.
- Goldman Sachs28 min
Navigating the new geopolitical and technology landscape
George Lee, Jared Cohen, Allison Nathan
High geopolitical uncertainty and the rise of "swing states" are forcing a shift from broad regional strategies to country-specific tactics as nations leverage distinct advantages in technology and supply chains. With geopolitical drivers now overpowering traditional economic interests, major powers are engaging in asymmetric competition over critical technologies like semiconductors and AI, creating an "impedance mismatch" between slow government regulation and rapid technological evolution. To navigate this landscape, leaders must integrate deep geopolitical analysis with commercial insights to mitigate risks and capitalize on the emerging "geocommercial" opportunities across these fragmented global markets.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Amid rising inflation and slowing growth, how is the U.S. consumer faring?
David Mericle, Kate McShane, Eric Sheridan, Allison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists project U.S. consumption growth will stabilize near 1% in late 2022 and 2023 as falling household wealth and the expiration of pandemic stimulus offset modest gains in real disposable income. While retail growth remains price-driven with consumers prioritizing essential goods over big-ticket items, the technology sector faces a shift toward lower single-digit growth rates focused on free cash flow visibility. Looking ahead, industry participants anticipate normalized supply chains and a balanced mix of unit and price growth in 2023, though retailers must manage elevated inventory levels through targeted promotions to offset slowing demand.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Inflation: Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?
Allison Nathan, Mohamed El-Erian, Jan Hatzius
Prominent economists Mohamed El-Erian and Jan Hatzius debate whether the current U.S. inflation surge is a transient phenomenon driven by commodity spikes or a persistent structural deficit caused by labor force changes and supply chain rewiring. While Hatzius anticipates inflation will normalize to a 2% to 2.5% range following a mid-June taper, El-Erian warns that the Federal Reserve risks a Type 2 error by underreacting to secular trends, potentially forcing a sharper policy correction later. The dialogue further highlights diverging views on labor market tightness and market valuations, with El-Erian cautioning that distorted liquidity has created a "rational bubble" that could collapse if inflation expectations de-anchor.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
An Evolution in the Cybersecurity Landscape
Matthew Chung, Wesley Williams, Andy Boura, Allison Nathan, Matt Chung, Wes Williams
Ten years ago defined by competitive secrecy, the financial sector now mandates public-private collaboration through bodies like the FSISAC to combat a 95% phishing breach rate exacerbated by remote work. Security operations have evolved into virtual fusion centers integrating legal and engineering teams that rely on automation to manage daily threats while addressing third-party risks highlighted by recent major incidents. Future strategies anticipate leveraging AI for defense and enhanced legislation, shifting the industry from reactive measures to proactive, layered resilience against increasingly commoditized cyber threats.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Europe at a Crossroads
Allison Nathan, Jari Stehn, Otmar Issing, Romano Prodi, Timothy Garton Ash
Over the last 18 months, the European Union has executed a historic fiscal shift by suspending stability rules and issuing €800 billion in common debt through the Next Generation EU fund to transfer resources from stronger to weaker member states. While this expansionary strategy, supported by the European Central Bank and a new German coalition, introduces a "stick and carrot" reform mechanism, it faces significant hurdles including potential moral hazard, legal challenges to the Maastricht Treaty, and the resilience of nationalist forces. The long-term sustainability of this integration depends on whether the bloc can manage temporary measures, navigate political risks like a potential French populist return, and adapt outdated fiscal criteria to current economic conditions before the recovery fund winds down.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Impact of Rising Natural Gas Prices
Damien Courvalin, Allison Nathan, Damian Cuervalin
Record-high natural gas prices in Europe have emerged from a convergence of surging global demand, particularly from China, and severe supply disruptions driven by underinvestment in fossil fuel infrastructure and regulatory issues surrounding Russian exports. This energy tightness, compounded by record-low inventory levels ahead of the winter peak, risks triggering industrial production cuts, accelerating inflation, and reducing economic growth across European economies. Goldman Sachs estimates that sustained price levels could force substitution toward oil, further elevating commodity costs while highlighting the structural dangers of rapid energy transitions without adequate backup capacity.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
The Delta Variant: Implications for Vaccines, Booster Shots and Economic Growth
Terence Flynn, Daan Struyven, Allison Nathan
Global discussions on the Delta variant highlight its heightened transmissibility and the robust protection of mRNA vaccines against severe disease, even as efficacy against mild symptomatic infection varies by region. Industry strategies are shifting toward booster programs for high-risk populations and the development of multivalent vaccines to address waning immunity and emerging threats. Concurrently, economic forecasts have been revised downward due to persistent case spikes in specific regions, supply chain bottlenecks, and consumer risk aversion slowing recovery in the United States and Asia-Pacific.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
The Future of ‘Femtech’
Ann Roberts, Lea von Bidder, Dr. Peter Kecskemethy, Antonia Riera, Allison Nathan, Leah Von Bitter
Flow Health CEO Anne Roberts, Ava co-founder Leah Von Bitter, and Chiron Medical founder Peter Ketch-Kometi led a strategic discussion on defining the Femtech sector through evidence-based science and rigorous regulation rather than consumer tech labels. The panelists detailed how their respective companies are leveraging machine learning and wearable physiology data to achieve massive scale, with Flow Health reporting 107% revenue growth and Ava successfully pivoting its algorithms for early COVID detection. While acknowledging the sector's unique capital challenges compared to fintech, the founders outlined future roadmaps focused on expanding product portfolios into menopause and contraception while pushing for AI-driven regulatory frameworks to enable broader clinical adoption.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
The IPO SPAC-Tacle
Allison Nathan, David Ludwig, Jay Ritter, Michael Klausner
The 2020–2021 IPO market defied pandemic headwinds to reach a $300 billion global record, driven by low interest rates and a surge in Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) activity that outnumbered traditional initial public offerings. While pre-merger SPAC investors enjoyed bond-like returns, experts like Michael Klausner warn that structural dilution and redemption risks are creating unsustainable losses for post-merger shareholders. Financial institutions project a market convergence where traditional IPOs and direct listings will evolve to address these inefficiencies, potentially replacing the current blank-check model.