Latest Interviews
Showing 1–4 of 4 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Fed's Tightrope: Inflation, Labor, and the Path Ahead
Rob Kaplan, Allison Nathan, Robert Kaplan
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan warns that the Federal Reserve faces a difficult December decision on interest rates as conflicting signals from tariffs, immigration uncertainty, and recent government shutdowns complicate the labor market outlook. With inflation running above target and structural mismatches limiting the efficacy of monetary policy, Kaplan argues that immediate cuts carry risks and suggests waiting for clearer data on 2026 growth drivers like AI infrastructure and tax incentives. While political pressure for lower rates exists, Kaplan maintains that the Fed's independent culture remains robust, though he anticipates potential shifts toward long-term bond purchases to manage the balance sheet.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
How Reliable is Economic Data?
Erica Groshen, Arthur Laffer, Alberto Cavallo, Joseph Briggs, Allison Nathan
Recent concerns regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data stem from funding cuts, a 15–20% staffing reduction at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the dismissal of its Commissioner by President Trump. Goldman Sachs research indicates that these operational constraints and declining survey responsiveness are increasing standard errors in key indicators like the CPI and JOLTS, creating a risk of data divergence. While current safeguards and institutional checks may prevent a total collapse of credibility, analysts warn that prolonged political interference and resource depletion could eventually erode market trust to the extent seen in Argentina.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Equity risks and alts opportunities
David Kostin, Padi Raphael, Allison Nathan
The Professional Investor Forum gathered advisors managing $1.3 trillion to analyze a U.S. market recovering to pre-tariff levels despite a 50% recession probability, as first-quarter earnings beat expectations by 12% before new April policy shifts. Goldman Sachs forecasts a recession-free 2025 baseline, though participants anticipate earnings compression in the second quarter if tariffs are implemented. Consequently, investment strategies are pivoting toward private market allocations and equal-weighted indices to mitigate concentrated stock risk while managing capital flows repatriated from Europe and steady inflows from Asia.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Will tariffs lead to a recession?
Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, Oren Cass, Allison Nathan
Prominent economists Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, and Oren Cass debated the Trump administration's historic tariff expansion, which Krugman identifies as an unprecedented economic shock and Hatzius projects will reduce GDP growth by two percentage points while raising recession probabilities to 45%. While Krugman warns that policy uncertainty will stifle business investment and Hatzius cautions that the Federal Reserve faces a difficult trade-off between inflation and stagnation, Cass argues the measures represent a necessary structural correction to global supply chains that will eventually stimulate domestic production. The panel concluded that although immediate data lags obscure the full extent of damage, the severity of the downturn will ultimately depend on the Federal Reserve's ability to balance conflicting price and employment mandates against a backdrop of rapidly shifting trade policy.