Latest Interviews
Showing 31–45 of 52 transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs19 min
Equity risks and alts opportunities
David Kostin, Padi Raphael, Allison Nathan
The Professional Investor Forum gathered advisors managing $1.3 trillion to analyze a U.S. market recovering to pre-tariff levels despite a 50% recession probability, as first-quarter earnings beat expectations by 12% before new April policy shifts. Goldman Sachs forecasts a recession-free 2025 baseline, though participants anticipate earnings compression in the second quarter if tariffs are implemented. Consequently, investment strategies are pivoting toward private market allocations and equal-weighted indices to mitigate concentrated stock risk while managing capital flows repatriated from Europe and steady inflows from Asia.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
AI Exchanges: How tech giants are navigating the AI landscape
Eric Sheridan, Allison Nathan, George Lee
Major technology giants are sustaining record capital expenditures through 2025 to solidify AI infrastructure dominance, with Goldman Sachs projecting this peak intensity to slow in 2026 despite tariff-related cost increases. Executives from Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon characterize the sector as being in the early innings of a third computing shift, prioritizing defensive positioning and infrastructure monetization over immediate application-layer profitability. Although investor sentiment remains bifurcated by macroeconomic risks, current valuations reflect a strategic reliance on these incumbents' unprecedented balance sheet scale to navigate the transition from raw training to commercial deployment.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Will tariffs lead to a recession?
Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, Oren Cass, Allison Nathan
Prominent economists Paul Krugman, Jan Hatzius, and Oren Cass debated the Trump administration's historic tariff expansion, which Krugman identifies as an unprecedented economic shock and Hatzius projects will reduce GDP growth by two percentage points while raising recession probabilities to 45%. While Krugman warns that policy uncertainty will stifle business investment and Hatzius cautions that the Federal Reserve faces a difficult trade-off between inflation and stagnation, Cass argues the measures represent a necessary structural correction to global supply chains that will eventually stimulate domestic production. The panel concluded that although immediate data lags obscure the full extent of damage, the severity of the downturn will ultimately depend on the Federal Reserve's ability to balance conflicting price and employment mandates against a backdrop of rapidly shifting trade policy.
- Goldman Sachs11 min
Recession watch: How to hedge now
Daan Struyven, Allison Nathan, Don Stryven
Recorded on April 8, 2025, Goldman Sachs analysts presented a strategic pivot toward hedging with commodities, projecting a 10% rise in gold to $3,300 per ounce under stagnation while forecasting a decline to $55 per barrel for Brent crude by 2026. The presentation detailed a "long gold, short oil" portfolio architecture designed to capitalize on anticipated Fed rate cuts and supply surges, respectively, with recession scenarios potentially pushing gold toward $4,250 or oil below $40. Additionally, the analysis highlighted copper's resilient long-term outlook driven by supply deficits, despite near-term volatility exacerbated by U.S. tariff announcements.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
AI Exchanges: CIO Marco Argenti on the future of AI in the workplace
Marco Argenti, George Lee, Allison Nathan
A Goldman Sachs-led panel analyzes the rapid acceleration of AI reasoning models against the persistent "value gap" created by legacy systems and the behavioral friction of retraining human workflows. While "de novo" enterprises advance faster due to agile structures, the firm is actively cultivating "mindful disruptors" and embedding specific cultural judgment into agents to manage risks like hallucinations and data exfiltration. The dialogue concludes that future success relies on a hybrid workforce where AI agents provide elastic capacity and mechanical execution, leaving high-level creativity and professional oversight to human leaders.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Are credit investors nervous about recession risk?
Goldman Sachs Chief Credit Strategist Lotfi Karawi attributes recent corporate bond spread widening to a necessary realignment with macro volatility rather than a recessionary collapse, noting that fundamentals remain robust while investors demand higher risk premiums due to trade and policy uncertainties. The firm forecasts Investment Grade spreads to peak between 120 and 125 basis points as market sentiment normalizes, a move that remains far from the 200-basis-point levels required to signal true recessionary stress. Despite the repricing, total return outlooks stay positive supported by high treasury yields, prompting a strategic shift toward defensive, high-quality instruments like agency mortgages while reducing exposure to lower-rated carry trades.
- Goldman Sachs18 min
Trump’s tariffs: Big talk or big action?
Trump, Jeff Gerrish, Allison Nathan
The current administration is deploying aggressive tariff policies to reshape U.S. manufacturing, secure national security in strategic sectors, and address geopolitical concerns like fentanyl trafficking. While market volatility is intentionally leveraged to force negotiation concessions, a coordinated strategy involving hawkish figures aims to replace bilateral deals with a reciprocal global tariff system by the April 1st deadline. Despite legal challenges, these measures are designed to correct trade imbalances and extend beyond the scope of previous administrations to fundamentally alter international trade dynamics.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
AI Exchanges: Will falling costs drive new opportunities?
Allison Nathan, George Lee, Kim Posnett
Host George Lee and guests analyze how DeepSeek's low-cost AI model challenges the economic viability of massive U.S. tech capital expenditures while triggering a shift in consensus from data scarcity to power availability as the primary industry constraint. Despite short-term market volatility, the panel highlights record CapEx commitments from hyperscalers and emerging enterprise adoption trends, including Goldman Sachs' internal AI tools and synthetic data markets, which collectively suggest a rapid transition toward autonomous AI agents and multi-gigawatt infrastructure needs. The discussion concludes with a bullish long-term outlook, predicting that declining computing costs will fuel new use cases and accelerate workforce productivity even as the sector navigates immediate supply chain bottlenecks.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on the business environment, AI, and private credit
On January 27, 2025, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and host Allison Nathan discussed a macroeconomic outlook defined by regulatory optimism alongside persistent uncertainties in immigration, trade, and energy policy. Solomon projected a robust 2025 recovery for capital markets and M&A activity while highlighting artificial intelligence as a critical productivity driver, even as he flagged geopolitical instability and complex inflation dynamics as key risks. The firm further emphasized its strategy to deploy excess capital buffers through private credit expansion and asset management growth, contingent on the appointment of key financial regulators and the resolution of stress testing ambiguities.
- Goldman Sachs17 min
What will the US presidential election mean for the economy?
Kevin Hassett, Jared Bernstein, Allison Nathan
Former and current Council of Economic Advisers chairs Jared Bernstein and Kevin Hassett debated the U.S. economic outlook, contrasting Bernstein's assessment of a solid expansion with Hassett's characterization of conflicting recessionary and growth signals. Their discussion highlighted sharp divergences on policy, with Bernstein defending targeted tariffs and tax hikes on high-net-worth individuals while Hassett advocated for reciprocal trade measures and warned that raising the corporate tax rate to 28% would stifle growth. Despite these disagreements, both economists acknowledged the potential of expanding tax credits for families and expressed concern over long-term fiscal sustainability regarding deficit levels and the upcoming debt limit crisis.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Will Fed policy trigger a US recession?
Allison Nathan, Claudia Sahm, Bill Dudley, Rob Kaplan, Alyssa Nathan
Following the technical activation of the Sahm Rule in July 2024, leading economists are divided on the likelihood of an imminent U.S. recession, with estimates ranging from Goldman Sachs' 20% probability to Bill Dudley's 60% forecast based on conflicting interpretations of labor supply shifts and demand destruction. While Fed Chair Powell signals impending rate cuts, experts like Claudia Sahm and Dudley warn that monetary policy risks lagging behind structural economic shifts, potentially turning a soft landing into an unforced recession if the central bank fails to act decisively. The prevailing base case anticipates a mild downturn or no contraction if the Federal Reserve successfully lowers borrowing costs, though divergent views persist regarding whether current unemployment data reflects a genuine demand shock or a temporary labor force anomaly.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
How a popular trade collapsed — and why it matters
Kamakshya Trivedi, Praneet Shah, Allison Nathan
Following a surge to record speculative highs in 2024, the yen carry trade unraveled after the Bank of Japan's rate hike and expectations of US Federal Reserve cuts narrowed the critical yield differential. This reversal triggered a negative feedback loop of forced liquidations across global markets, affecting currencies from the Mexican peso to the Chinese renminbi, while distinct dynamics emerged between the rapid unwinding of hedge fund positions and the slower rebalancing of institutional portfolios. Despite the immediate volatility, economists anticipate the trade could regain relevance by mid-November if US economic data supports the restoration of attractive global yield spreads.
- Goldman Sachs29 min
Power surge: AI, renewable energy, and the future of electricity
Carly Davenport, Alberto Gandolfi, Brian Singer, Allison Nathan
Global power demand is surging due to generative AI and data center expansion, with US growth forecast to accelerate to a 2.5% CAGR by 2030 while Europe faces similar pressure from electrification plans. Goldman Sachs predicts an "all-of-the-above" generation strategy dominated by natural gas and renewables to support an estimated $50 billion in new US infrastructure investment, even as nuclear adoption shifts toward direct power purchase agreements and small modular reactors. This transition faces significant bottlenecks including multi-year permitting delays, equipment shortages, and grid modernization needs, positioning the sector for a generational investment boom over the next decade.
- Goldman Sachs27 min
Can private equity bounce back?
Alex Blostein, Allison Nathan, Mike Nickols, Gina Lytle
Following a period of exceptional growth, the private equity industry is navigating a cyclical reversion marked by subdued returns and a record $2.5 trillion in dry powder, driven by a valuation gap between buyers and sellers and limited institutional capital availability. Goldman Sachs projects a shift toward multi-asset platforms and global expansion, with firms increasingly relying on private credit, secondary markets, and GP-led continuation funds to manufacture returns and provide liquidity in a higher-rate environment. This consolidation trend suggests that future market success will depend on diversification and operational value creation rather than financial leverage, as the sector matures and normalizes its growth trajectory.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Are the largest US stocks too dominant?
Ben Snider, Peter Callahan, Allison Nathan
Ben Snyder and Peter Callahan analyze record-breaking market concentration where the S&P 500's top ten stocks now hold 33% of total capitalization, a level unmatched since the 1930s despite current valuations being supported by robust earnings growth rather than speculation. While the "Magnificent Seven" face pressure to sustain revenue gains amid rising AI infrastructure costs, active managers are capitalizing on increasing sector dispersion and finding alpha outside the dominant tech tier. Historical precedents and ongoing investor strategies suggest that such concentrated rallies often conclude with broader market participation rather than immediate collapse, provided the economic backdrop remains stable.