Latest Interviews
Showing 16–30 of 75 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs20 min
Why Japanese Stocks Could Keep Rallying
Driven by Prime Minister Senei Takeuchi's snap election victory, Japanese equities have surged 14% year-to-date in 2026, outperforming US benchmarks and triggering a Goldman Sachs price target increase based on anticipated political stability. This supermajority is expected to facilitate long-term policy continuity, attracting foreign capital as investors anticipate concrete corporate governance reforms and accelerated ROE growth to sustain the current market cycle. While risks such as leadership transitions or policy missteps remain, the landslide win signals a transition into a "delivery phase" where structural economic security and defense clarity ahead of the March 19 summit will likely drive further valuation expansion.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Will US Stocks Outperform in 2026?
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects global equities to outperform U.S. stocks in 2026, with emerging markets excluding China forecast to lead returns despite a negative outlook on Chinese assets due to a disconnect between official GDP figures and independent growth estimates. While identifying potential valuation risks and "bubble trouble" within the private AI sector, the firm advises against hedges like gold or Bitcoin in favor of U.S. Treasuries and broad S&P 500 exposure. The strategic recommendation centers on maintaining a diversified portfolio with a U.S. overweight, utilizing the index's rebalancing mechanism to capture long-term returns driven by margin expansion and AI efficiency.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on AI, M&A, and Markets
Goldman Sachs analysts project the 2026 global economy will benefit from stimulative fiscal and monetary policies that favor the U.S. structural growth advantage over Europe and China, despite lingering geopolitical risks. The firm anticipates a historic surge in M&A and IPO activity driven by a permissive regulatory environment and shifting CEO sentiment toward dealmaking. Internally, the organization is leveraging its "OneGS 3.0" AI strategy to restructure legacy processes, aiming to boost efficiency and productivity without reducing headcount while focusing future growth on asset and wealth management.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives
David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move
Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stroyven
Goldman Sachs analysts outline a market landscape defined by U.K. sanctions on major Russian oil producers, which could raise prices by $20 per barrel if OPEC+ fails to offset the disruption, while simultaneously projecting Brent crude to decline to the mid-$50s by 2026. The report highlights critical supply chain fragilities in the rare earth sector, where China's 92% refining dominance and decade-long Western build-out timelines create geopolitical leverage that investors must hedge. To mitigate these risks, the strategy recommends a structural reallocation toward gold, with a target of $4,900 per ounce, as a primary defense against fiscal debasement and resource weaponization alongside silver's volatile, liquid-dependent profile.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Making Sense of Weak Job Growth Alongside Solid GDP Growth
Despite tariffs reaching eight times 2019 levels and a three-week government shutdown subtracting from growth, U.S. GDP resilience is maintained by a depreciating dollar, stable stock markets, and a productivity rebound to historical averages. Core inflation is projected to normalize toward the 2% target as supply chains recover, supporting the Federal Reserve's current expectation of three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts through the end of the year. While immigration drops have constrained labor supply and AI adoption remains limited to specific sectors, policymakers anticipate maintaining a moderate expansion path unless post-shutdown data reveals significant deviations from current forecasts.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Shutdown’s Economic Impact
A partisan role reversal has precipitated a broad federal government shutdown as Democrats withhold support for clean spending bills to demand the extension of ACA health insurance subsidies, a move that polling suggests is driving voter blame toward Republicans. The crisis faces a critical resolution pressure point on October 15 when active-duty military personnel miss a pay cycle, a deadline that historically compels congressional action to avoid widespread economic disruption. While the shutdown projects to reduce Q4 GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points and delay key economic data releases, market analysts and the Federal Reserve anticipate the stalemate will resolve quickly through a targeted fiscal compromise.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
Revenge of the Meme Stocks
Goldman Sachs Research identifies a renewed surge in retail-driven trading activity for 30 to 50 specific stocks, characterized by aggressive out-of-the-money call option buying that currently operates at half the intensity of the 2021 peak. This trend, fueled by tax reform optimism and available retail liquidity, is projected to persist for several weeks before a waning volume pattern signals an impending decline. Institutional investors have adapted by tracking raw trade volumes rather than social sentiment to manage short-covering risks, reflecting a permanent shift where retail traders now account for the majority of single-stock options volume.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
Are Investors Complacent?
Jan Hatzius, Dom Wilson, Alison Nathan, Dominic Wilson
The U.S. has raised effective tariff rates by nine percentage points, introducing new levies on China, Canada, and Mexico while delaying agricultural tariffs until late next year. This shift, combined with a fiscally expansionary "Big Beautiful Act," is projected to push core PCE inflation to the low threes and suppress 2025 GDP growth to between 1% and 1.5%. In response, financial markets anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September to mitigate these temporary price shocks, while the U.S. dollar continues a structural depreciation against a backdrop of resilient global trade.
- Goldman Sachs16 min
The Surprising Implications of an Aging Population
Global median ages are rising rapidly across both developed and emerging economies as increased longevity and declining fertility rates drive a peak in the world population around 2075. This demographic shift presents a projected 15% decline in the working-age ratio for developed nations, though the immediate economic crisis is mitigated by a 12% extension in effective working lives since 2000. Consequently, markets are adapting not through a simple shift to elderly-specific goods, but via a prolonged lifecycle consumption model where society extends all life stages while boosting female labor participation.
- Goldman Sachs19 min
Commodities Outlook: What’s Driving Oil, Gold, and Base Metals
Goldman Sachs forecasts a divergent commodity outlook for the second half of the year, projecting oil prices to decline $10 per barrel amidst global supply surpluses while anticipating gold to reach $4,000 per ounce driven by record central bank accumulation. The firm identifies significant upside for U.S. copper due to imminent tariff-induced supply tightness and rising defense-related demand, contrasting sharply with a structural peak in Chinese oil consumption. These macro trends position fiscal spending and energy diversification as primary drivers, favoring industrial metals over traditional energy assets despite recent geopolitical volatility.
- Goldman Sachs24 min
Mid-year outlook: diversify and hedge
Christian Mueller-Glissmann, Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs strategists Christian Mueller-Glissman and Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo analyze a complex macro environment where unprecedented volatility in equities, bonds, and the dollar has converged, yet the US economy remains on track for a non-recessionary cool-down. They recommend a shift from traditional diversification toward a "constellation" of alternatives and selective optimism, highlighting opportunities in defensive stocks, European banking, and private capital while warning of elevated summer risks from tariffs and geopolitical tensions. The consensus advice is to embrace growth trajectories while hedging against near-term liquidity thinning, anticipating a market recovery driven by policy clarity and positive fiscal dynamics extending into 2026.
- Goldman Sachs25 min
Is Fed independence at risk?
Richard Clarida, John Cochrane, Alison Nathan
The Trump administration is actively pursuing legal challenges to overturn the *Humphrey's Executor* precedent, aiming to eliminate "for-cause" protections for Federal Reserve officials and subject them to direct presidential removal. While structural checks like the Federal Open Market Committee's voting system and Senate confirmation remain, this strategy threatens to destabilize financial markets by introducing uncertainty over the central bank's ability to maintain price stability. Experts warn that removing these independence safeguards could distort inflation expectations and encourage mission creep, as the Fed faces pressure to expand beyond its statutory mandate into areas like climate risk and housing policy.
- Goldman Sachs13 min
Stagflation and the Fed's next move
The U.S. economy confronts a stagflationary shock driven by spending cuts, restrictive immigration policies, and tariff uncertainty, creating a complex backdrop for Federal Reserve monetary strategy. Policymakers are advised to pause rate decisions at the May meeting to assess new trade data while maintaining a tough rhetorical stance to anchor inflation expectations without pre-committing to specific future cuts. As the Fed balances its dual mandate amidst potential political pressure, global investors are cautiously retaining dollar allocations despite signs of institutional skepticism and capital outflows that are currently characterized as temporary positioning rather than a permanent strategic shift.