Latest Interviews
Showing 16–30 of 131 interview transcripts.
Clear all filters- Goldman Sachs16 min
Natural Gas in Focus: Iran Conflict Could Have ‘Very Painful’ Consequences
Ongoing attacks on Qatari LNG infrastructure have eliminated 20% of global supplies with a three-to-five-year recovery timeline, creating a critical inventory deficit that exceeds current alternative flows from China. Although prices have surged 50% to 70%, these levels remain insufficient to trigger widespread demand destruction in Asia, leaving markets vulnerable to severe winter spikes if the conflict prolongs. Experts warn that this uncertainty allows prices to creep upward without forcing the necessary industrial shutdowns, meaning a worst-case scenario could drive rates 100% higher to rebalance inventories before next winter.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
AI Exchanges: Power Problems?
Brian Singer, Alison Nathan, George Lee
Goldman Sachs projects a 220% surge in global data center power demand by 2030 as hyperscalers commit over $300 billion to infrastructure, a trajectory comparable to adding the world's sixth-largest power consumer to the grid. This aggressive expansion faces severe bottlenecks in skilled labor and transmission supply, forcing a near-term reliance on natural gas simple-cycle generators while industry leaders navigate regulatory hurdles and "agentic" AI traffic growth. Despite the high capital intensity and a potential $40 per megawatt-hour premium for green energy, major technology firms maintain robust balance sheets to fund these transition costs while seeking to decouple their power expenses from consumer utility rates.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Iran Conflict: How Long, and How Bad?
Sanam Vakil, Dennis Ross, Kevin Donegan, Alison Nathan
Entering its fourth week, the Iran conflict has evolved into a regime-survival struggle where Tehran seeks to spread costs widely while the U.S. military targets Iran's missile capabilities and nuclear program. Strategic deadlock persists over the Strait of Hormuz, as limited convoy operations can only restore roughly 20% of normal oil flows despite rehearsed allied defenses. Panelists conclude that resolving this locked-in scenario requires a mediated outcome, though recent political assassinations and the need to rebuild Iran's collapsed economy complicate any immediate return to pre-conflict stability.
- Goldman Sachs15 min
Emerging Markets: Stirred, But Not Yet Shaken
Kamakshya Trivedi, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs analysts observe that risky assets recently reversed gains following an Iran conflict-driven oil spike, shifting market expectations from rate cuts to an inflation shock that has strengthened the US dollar through favorable terms of trade. While traditional hedges have underperformed, the firm maintains a positive outlook for emerging market equities, projecting 10–12% upside driven by robust earnings and structural trends like the AI semiconductor supply chain rather than multiple expansion. This bullish stance assumes the energy crisis remains short-duration; however, a prolonged conflict threatening physical supply shortages could force a re-evaluation of growth estimates and trigger significant market damage.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
Oil Market Impacts from Iran
Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stroivind
A U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering a significant disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and causing Brent crude prices to surge 25% year-to-date. While Goldman Sachs forecasts a base case of no sustained supply interruptions with prices stabilizing by late 2026, the market currently prices in a risk premium for a potential one-month closure that could drive costs to triple digits. As global spare capacity remains trapped by the blockade and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels remain low, the situation presents immediate inflationary risks and elevated geopolitical tail risks for Gulf Cooperation Council infrastructure.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Why Japanese Stocks Could Keep Rallying
Driven by Prime Minister Senei Takeuchi's snap election victory, Japanese equities have surged 14% year-to-date in 2026, outperforming US benchmarks and triggering a Goldman Sachs price target increase based on anticipated political stability. This supermajority is expected to facilitate long-term policy continuity, attracting foreign capital as investors anticipate concrete corporate governance reforms and accelerated ROE growth to sustain the current market cycle. While risks such as leadership transitions or policy missteps remain, the landslide win signals a transition into a "delivery phase" where structural economic security and defense clarity ahead of the March 19 summit will likely drive further valuation expansion.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
Will US Stocks Outperform in 2026?
Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects global equities to outperform U.S. stocks in 2026, with emerging markets excluding China forecast to lead returns despite a negative outlook on Chinese assets due to a disconnect between official GDP figures and independent growth estimates. While identifying potential valuation risks and "bubble trouble" within the private AI sector, the firm advises against hedges like gold or Bitcoin in favor of U.S. Treasuries and broad S&P 500 exposure. The strategic recommendation centers on maintaining a diversified portfolio with a U.S. overweight, utilizing the index's rebalancing mechanism to capture long-term returns driven by margin expansion and AI efficiency.
- Goldman Sachs22 min
Goldman Sachs Chairman and CEO David Solomon on AI, M&A, and Markets
Goldman Sachs analysts project the 2026 global economy will benefit from stimulative fiscal and monetary policies that favor the U.S. structural growth advantage over Europe and China, despite lingering geopolitical risks. The firm anticipates a historic surge in M&A and IPO activity driven by a permissive regulatory environment and shifting CEO sentiment toward dealmaking. Internally, the organization is leveraging its "OneGS 3.0" AI strategy to restructure legacy processes, aiming to boost efficiency and productivity without reducing headcount while focusing future growth on asset and wealth management.
- Goldman Sachs23 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 2: Regional Perspectives
David Mericle, Andrew Tilton, Jari Stehn, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs economists David Miracle, Andrew Tilton, and Yari Stein outline regional economic forecasts for 2026, projecting 2.5% US growth driven by tax cuts and Fed rate reductions alongside a resilient 4.8% expansion in China fueled by manufacturing competitiveness. The analysis highlights contrasting monetary trajectories, including the Bank of Japan's aggressive tightening to 0.75% and the ECB's projected rate hold, while warning of US labor market uncertainties and European structural weaknesses. These insights, recorded on January 7, 2026, serve as the second installment of the Outlook 2026 series, setting the stage for subsequent asset class discussions.
- Goldman Sachs26 min
Goldman Sachs Exchanges: Outlook 2026 | Episode 1: The Big Picture
Jan Hatzius, Dominic Wilson, Alison Nathan
Goldman Sachs projects 2026 global growth to reach 2.7%, driven by the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," German fiscal easing, and the fading impact of 2025 tariffs. The firm forecasts a 2.5% expansion for the U.S. economy alongside expected Federal Reserve rate cuts that aim to lower inflation and address labor market stagnation. While equities are anticipated to deliver low double-digit returns, analysts warn of recession risks tied to the "SOM Rule" and elevated valuations that may trigger significant market volatility.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
Gold, Oil, and Rare Earths: Commodities on the Move
Daan Struyven, Alison Nathan, Don Stroyven
Goldman Sachs analysts outline a market landscape defined by U.K. sanctions on major Russian oil producers, which could raise prices by $20 per barrel if OPEC+ fails to offset the disruption, while simultaneously projecting Brent crude to decline to the mid-$50s by 2026. The report highlights critical supply chain fragilities in the rare earth sector, where China's 92% refining dominance and decade-long Western build-out timelines create geopolitical leverage that investors must hedge. To mitigate these risks, the strategy recommends a structural reallocation toward gold, with a target of $4,900 per ounce, as a primary defense against fiscal debasement and resource weaponization alongside silver's volatile, liquid-dependent profile.
- Goldman Sachs20 min
Making Sense of Weak Job Growth Alongside Solid GDP Growth
Despite tariffs reaching eight times 2019 levels and a three-week government shutdown subtracting from growth, U.S. GDP resilience is maintained by a depreciating dollar, stable stock markets, and a productivity rebound to historical averages. Core inflation is projected to normalize toward the 2% target as supply chains recover, supporting the Federal Reserve's current expectation of three consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts through the end of the year. While immigration drops have constrained labor supply and AI adoption remains limited to specific sectors, policymakers anticipate maintaining a moderate expansion path unless post-shutdown data reveals significant deviations from current forecasts.
- Goldman Sachs21 min
The Shutdown’s Economic Impact
A partisan role reversal has precipitated a broad federal government shutdown as Democrats withhold support for clean spending bills to demand the extension of ACA health insurance subsidies, a move that polling suggests is driving voter blame toward Republicans. The crisis faces a critical resolution pressure point on October 15 when active-duty military personnel miss a pay cycle, a deadline that historically compels congressional action to avoid widespread economic disruption. While the shutdown projects to reduce Q4 GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points and delay key economic data releases, market analysts and the Federal Reserve anticipate the stalemate will resolve quickly through a targeted fiscal compromise.
- Goldman Sachs14 min
Revenge of the Meme Stocks
Goldman Sachs Research identifies a renewed surge in retail-driven trading activity for 30 to 50 specific stocks, characterized by aggressive out-of-the-money call option buying that currently operates at half the intensity of the 2021 peak. This trend, fueled by tax reform optimism and available retail liquidity, is projected to persist for several weeks before a waning volume pattern signals an impending decline. Institutional investors have adapted by tracking raw trade volumes rather than social sentiment to manage short-covering risks, reflecting a permanent shift where retail traders now account for the majority of single-stock options volume.
- Goldman Sachs36 min
Are Investors Complacent?
Jan Hatzius, Dom Wilson, Alison Nathan, Dominic Wilson
The U.S. has raised effective tariff rates by nine percentage points, introducing new levies on China, Canada, and Mexico while delaying agricultural tariffs until late next year. This shift, combined with a fiscally expansionary "Big Beautiful Act," is projected to push core PCE inflation to the low threes and suppress 2025 GDP growth to between 1% and 1.5%. In response, financial markets anticipate Federal Reserve rate cuts beginning in September to mitigate these temporary price shocks, while the U.S. dollar continues a structural depreciation against a backdrop of resilient global trade.